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Vasant Dhar

👤 Speaker
53 total appearances
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Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Prof G Markets
Snap’s “Crucible Moment” Flops On Wall Street

Yeah, you're right.

Prof G Markets
Snap’s “Crucible Moment” Flops On Wall Street

You know, when I went to Wall Street and I brought machine learning to Wall Street, it was AI was sort of, you know, it was a thing that people viewed with suspicion.

Prof G Markets
Snap’s “Crucible Moment” Flops On Wall Street

You know, you had economists who were used to sort of linear models and you had physicists who were used to, you know, physical kinds of models and machine learning sort of fell in this awkward space.

Prof G Markets
Snap’s “Crucible Moment” Flops On Wall Street

They didn't quite know what to make of it.

Prof G Markets
Snap’s “Crucible Moment” Flops On Wall Street

My objective really was to see if I could get a machine to learn how to trade.

Prof G Markets
Snap’s “Crucible Moment” Flops On Wall Street

That was just an open question.

Prof G Markets
Snap’s “Crucible Moment” Flops On Wall Street

It wasn't clear to me that that was even possible.

Prof G Markets
Snap’s “Crucible Moment” Flops On Wall Street

You know, after a few years, I had a conversation with Scott, actually, in 2015, you know, called, Should You Trust Your Money to a Robot?

Prof G Markets
Snap’s “Crucible Moment” Flops On Wall Street

And I sort of broke the investment landscape into three holding periods, you know, high-frequency, short-term, and long-term.

Prof G Markets
Snap’s “Crucible Moment” Flops On Wall Street

High-frequency being intraday, short-term being days to weeks, and long-term being like weeks to months to years.

Prof G Markets
Snap’s “Crucible Moment” Flops On Wall Street

And at that time, my position was that AI had tremendous potential in investing in the high-frequency and the short-term space because there was sufficient data and machine learning methods were actually capable of picking up on the nuances in markets that the cruder linear models sort of missed.

Prof G Markets
Snap’s “Crucible Moment” Flops On Wall Street

And I recall that Scott ended that conversation by saying, okay, so trading flows will disappear, but private equity and long-term investing is safe.

Prof G Markets
Snap’s “Crucible Moment” Flops On Wall Street

And I said, yeah, that's pretty much the case.

Prof G Markets
Snap’s “Crucible Moment” Flops On Wall Street

And ironically, I'd had a similar conversation with Damodaran in 2015 about whether we could simulate him.

Prof G Markets
Snap’s “Crucible Moment” Flops On Wall Street

And at that time, we felt it just wasn't possible with the tools.

Prof G Markets
Snap’s “Crucible Moment” Flops On Wall Street

But in 2022, with the emergence of LLMs, we sort of revisited that.

Prof G Markets
Snap’s “Crucible Moment” Flops On Wall Street

And now three years later, three plus years later, we're getting ready to release the Damodaran bot next month for commercial use.

Prof G Markets
Snap’s “Crucible Moment” Flops On Wall Street

And

Prof G Markets
Snap’s “Crucible Moment” Flops On Wall Street

I'm fairly confident that we've actually managed to simulate his kind of thinking to a reasonable degree.

Prof G Markets
Snap’s “Crucible Moment” Flops On Wall Street

So to the extent that you actually believe in sort of a free cash flow model to the firm, you know, fundamentals approach to investing, we've actually managed to do that reasonably well.

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