Vivek Dhar

And same with Malaysia.

And so these are the risks that you run if you look at direct supply chains.

But what ends up happening in this market is that it's just going to be a bidding war.

Who's going to get the cargoes?

Because everyone is going to compete for them because we're seeing 10% less to the market every single day.

And what typically happens in that reallocation is advanced economies tend to get what they need.

There is some demand destruction and some thrifting, but overall, the volumes should generally be there.

But the countries that really suffer are more your developing countries.

And here, developing Asia is particularly at risk.

So here we're talking Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines.

Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, these are the countries that are most at risk because they just don't have the capacity to pay like the advanced economies in Asia.

It's that and coal as well.

So it's actually our fossil fuels that are giving us some leverage as we try and make sure that we have our entire energy mix to kind of get through this crisis.

So look, this is a very difficult one to answer because every time you think there's hope, things turn the other way.

But the way we're thinking about this is that the longer this goes on, the higher prices need to go to force these emerging economies to basically be at a point where they can't afford these fuel cargoes.

And the prices we put at those levels, we think that's the risk where prices can head.

And for Brent, we're talking $120 to $150 a barrel.

And for LNG or Asian LNG spot prices, we're talking $25 to $40 per MNBTU.

So those are the demand destruction points that we think the market has to head to because there's no way you can plug this hole.

And there are going to be people who can't pay for this.