Vivek Dhar

That's why when you look around, you can see that there are petrol stations that don't have certain fuels.

That's been really the key driver is that we've seen a lot of hoarding and that's brought forward a lot of demand.

The key risk for this market and what's going to come in the coming weeks is this idea that can Australia secure cargoes in a world where we're getting 10% less supply than we used to?

And that's really why we're seeing the prime minister and high level leadership go out and ask countries for these bilateral agreements that can we get this fuel product here because we really need it just to make sure that we have the volumes if and when we choose.

Sure.

So look, if we look in terms of diesel, which I think is the key risk here, is that South Korea, then Singapore, then Malaysia are probably your top three when you're talking diesel imports.

And so what Australia has to play as leverage here is that we're a major LNG exporter in the world, particularly given that Qatar is offline due to the state of Hormuz.

So leveraging that relationship where we can provide secure cargos of LNG to particularly these countries like Singapore, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan,

it is enormous leverage then to be like, but you have to make sure that we get the refined products that we don't have.

And that includes diesel, right?

And so I think that's how we're seeing this play out.

But this is something that we should expect is advanced economies have a way of being able to pay a much higher price for these refined products than developing economies.

And this is not the first time we've seen this.

If we go back to 2022 and what happened with LNG,

Remember when Russia cut off its gas to Europe and Europe had to buy enormous amounts of LNG?

It was more developing economies that suffered on the back of that.

And Europe managed to secure their cargoes by paying a high enough price.

We're seeing very similar outcomes play out here.

And in my view, Australia won't really have so much of a volume risk as the price they're going to have to pay for these refined products.

So predominantly, they'll also get it from the Strait of Hormuz.