Vivek Dhar

And that's all to do with the bypasses, the inventory drawdowns and Iran's exports.

So this is probably like when we talk about inventories that are being held by the major consumers, there's quite a bit.

But even when we look at what's held, the question is how quickly can you take it from the inventories themselves?

And the flow rates out of it, we're talking roughly 1.2 to 2 million barrels a day.

So compared to what is actually disrupted, all of these are very much partial offsets.

ways to do it.

There's nothing that's going to provide that substantive relief.

And so in terms of that physical issue of not having your barrels, we're already seeing parts of the market stress.

So if you look at physical delivery of oil and the markets that are catered towards that, those prices right now are above $140 a barrel.

So we are already seeing stresses come in terms of obtaining physical cargoes.

But in terms of the benchmark that everyone talks about, it's the Brent futures.

And that is not reflective of the underlying physical conditions.

And that's closer to $100 a barrel.

And so you can see there's a massive mismatch when you look at what's happening in terms of that demand for physical, because everyone is trying to get their hands on any cargo as possible because it's so scarce.

But in terms of when will Australia feel it?

Now, overall, we've had, when we look at what's coming into Australia, the tankers are still coming in from before the Strait of Hormuzo was closed.

So we're not feeling that impact just yet in terms of that tanker supply.

But what we're definitely feeling here is being a demand surge because everyone has been worried that we're not going to get cargoes in coming months.

And so what we've seen here is more of a demand surge than not getting the tanker availability.

And that's how we felt it.