Vivek Dhar

Sure.

So look, when it comes to both oil and gas, what we're talking about, the Strait of Hormuz, is that it's a massive choke point.

So we're talking roughly a fifth of global oil supply goes through that narrow waterway called the Strait of Hormuz.

And then you have about 20% of global LNG trade that goes through that same point.

And so you can just imagine that now that we've decided to shut the Strait of Hormuz because we've seen tensions in the region, particularly Iran controlling the strait, we are now seeing that come through in terms of prices.

And this isn't just the story of, oh, we're going to see some expectation of supply cuts, which has really been the narrative when we talk about what's happening in the Middle East.

We are talking about actual physical supply disruptions.

Every day, as we talk right now, we're talking roughly between 10% to 12% of global supply isn't coming to meet demand.

And that is why there is so much concern right now, particularly in oil markets, that we are going to be caught short.

Look, there are other ways, and we're seeing two of them right now be key mitigants to this idea of losing a fifth from day one.

One, and the biggest one, is the east-west pipeline owned by Saudi Arabia.

That can take about 7 million barrels a day, 5 million barrels a day, which is additional.

And so that is providing some buffering because we're seeing exports come out of the Red Sea, which is avoiding the Strait of Hormuz.

But the other one, which has been a surprise package so far, has been Iran's oil exports have been allowed to flow.

And that's added another one and a half to two million barrels a day to the market.

So these two avenues have been the key reasons why we haven't seen a fifth of global oil supply sidelined right now.

They're key mitigants.

The other parts that are happening in global oil markets, which is reducing the disruption effect, is we're seeing inventory drawdowns.

And that's being engineered by the major consumers of oil, but also we're seeing sanctions taken away from Russia and even Iranian oil, which is making it available to the market.

So overall, instead of that 20% of global oil supply that's disrupted, we're closer to about 10%.