Vivek Dhar
π€ SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
So NDPR, it has come up in the last year.
And so it's quite, it's supported right now in terms of spot prices in that $110 to $115 a kilo range.
And that so far is quite good when you consider that the floor prices that both Linus and MP Materials, what they managed to achieve was about $110.
But we are seeing demand expectations for particularly rare earths start to accelerate.
If I looked at what the IEA put out in the Curriculum Minerals Report last year, the level of demand increase from 2024 to 2030 was in the realm of 1.2 to 1.4 times higher.
from 2024 to 2030.
That's slowly picking up.
I think the latest numbers I'm seeing in terms of some of the forecasters out there is closer to two times.
And that is something that is going to put upward pressure on NDPR.
So if we're near that 110 a kilo level, we could really see that lift.
And I've seen forecasts out there of close to 150.
So that's probably where the market is looking, that NDPR price.
And I think that's the most critical one from that side.
In terms of lithium and what we're seeing play out there, this has been an issue that has played out since the middle of last year.
We have seen mostly Chinese policy that has pushed this lithium price higher.
But if you look at very recently what to look out for, I think there is going to be upgrades to EV sales uptake, particularly outside China.
So at the beginning of this year, everyone was thinking EV demand
EV sales growth about 9% this year, I'd say there's upside risk.
And we're seeing that in a lot of the data from ex-China countries in terms of that EV uptake in response to this Iran war.
So I think there's a bit more upside to play in lithium, but certainly the price increase so far since June lows last year have been sizable.