Vivek Dhar

But what we've seen correct so far is that when we saw US bond yields jump and the US dollar increase, we have seen copper come back off.

And that's something to really watch here, that the higher the bond yields go, the quicker the market will try and price and actually wait.

Global copper demand may actually fall.

We might actually see subdued global growth outlooks.

And that is where that copper price is going to be very volatile.

You're going to have demand concerns come in right now.

On top of that, you're going to have supply disruptions.

So in the next near term, like next few months, expect a lot of volatility in copper because the demand and supply drivers are just going to be contrasting.

Yeah.

And part of the reason for that is what we're seeing coming out of this Iran war.

One of the big input costs when you look at iron ore mining is diesel.

And so if you look at what has happened with this war, because diesel prices have escalated, that has translated through to higher costs for oil producers.

And, you know, if you look at some of the estimates out there, you know, for various regions, we're talking 5% to 20% increases in your FOB iron ore costs.

And that's purely from just the diesel price changes.

And when you put that into perspective in terms of that marginal part of the cost curve, it's sizable.

So right now, if this war hadn't happened and you see the level of weak demand in China, we would have argued $95 a tonne for iron ore.

But given the situation that's unfolding with diesel, we'd actually put those price levels now closer to $100 to $105 a ton.

So we've seen prices come off because of Chinese steel demand concerns, and we think they're warranted.

But that cost support is the reason why north of $100 might be sticky so long as this Iran war plays out.

Yeah, look, in terms of what's happening with rare earths, we've certainly seen spot prices for neodymium and praseodymium.