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Chapter 1: What does Donald Trump claim he wants for his 80th birthday?
Donald Trump said what he wanted for his 80th birthday was world peace.
Well, I'll go a step bigger. Peace for the world, OK? Peace for the world. Middle East, yes. Peace for the whole world, yeah.
And now, alongside the UFC spectacle on the White House lawn, he appears to have given himself the headline he wanted, a so-called peace deal with Iran. Or, more accurately, a 60-day pause while negotiations continue. I'm Ruby Jones, and you're listening to 7am.
Today, Director of the Australia Institute's International and Security Affairs Program, Dr Emma Shortis, on Trump's latest end-of-the-war announcement and what could derail it. It's Tuesday, June 16.
We just made a great settlement of the war with Iran. And we're going to be subject to finalisation of documents. We should get done over the next few days.
So, Emma, could we begin with what Donald Trump is claiming right now? He says that there's a peace deal. He's saying let the oil flow.
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Chapter 2: What is the significance of Trump's peace deal with Iran?
The Strait of Hormuz is supposed to be reopening. We're being told that this is a breakthrough. So what is it that's actually happened?
Well, I think this is a very familiar place for us to be, Ruby. It's something we've seen repeat itself over the last several months where Trump says we're close to a deal or even announces a deal.
US President Donald Trump tonight insists a deal to end the Iran war is close. It's the 39th time he's made that claim.
And then it turns out that we have very little detail about said deal. And as that detail is revealed, it becomes clear either that no progress has been made, that there are contradictions coming from the Trump administration or Iran, and the whole thing falls apart.
Now, that won't necessarily happen in exactly that way again this time, but certainly we don't have detail and contradictions are... already emerging. So Trump is making these big claims, but there's not a lot yet, at least, to back them up.
Okay, so a 60-day ceasefire extension seems to be what's on the table. What does that involve?
Sure. So look, as far as we know, there is an extension of this ceasefire, but it's important to note that... Even using the word ceasefire in this context, I think we have to be careful with because, of course, the conflict has continued throughout multiple so-called ceasefires. But so far as we know, there is this extension of the ceasefire.
There is also the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, although Iranian state media is reporting that that will happen under Iranian arrangements, whatever that might mean. And there's also a note that there hasn't been agreement on critical issues of nuclear enrichment, that that will be negotiated over the next 60 days.
So again, there's not a whole lot of detail that we have, and I don't think we should have heaps of confidence in the detail that has emerged so far. So the deal is supposed to be signed in Geneva on Friday, but who knows what can happen between now and then.
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Chapter 3: What are the details of the proposed 60-day ceasefire?
You know, this is having an enormous impact on communities across the world. And so, of course, any de-escalation is welcome and should be welcomed by the government. But... At the same time, you know, this government is doubling down on its alliance with the Trump administration. And so it's exposing those kinds of contradictions as well.
Contradictions that aren't limited to Australia, but exist across especially democracies, you know, and democracies that like to talk about the value and the importance of the international rules-based order, even in the face of Trump's assault on that order.
Well, Emma, thank you so much for talking with me. Pleasure. Thank you, Ruby. Thank you.
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Also in the news, Pauline Hanson has taken the lead as preferred Prime Minister in the latest Resolve poll. 33% of voters nominated Hanson as their top choice for Prime Minister, four points ahead of Anthony Albanese and 17 points ahead of Angus Taylor, who is now polling worse than his predecessor, Susan Lee.
One Nation is also ahead in the primary vote, leading 29% to Labor's 28% and the Coalition's 20%. And Anthony Albanese says an announcement will be made soon about the future of the fuel excise tax cut. The cut, which was introduced to offset the oil shock created by the Iran war, is set to expire at the end of this month.
The Prime Minister says the government will make its assessment in the coming days. Experts warn even if the strait is reopened, it'll take a while for oil prices to return to normal. I'm Ruby Jones. This is 7am. Thanks for listening.
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