Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
I'm Daniel James and you're listening to 7am.
Chapter 2: What warnings did the IMF give about the global economy's impact on Australia?
This week the Albanese government has been forced to confront a growing sense of instability with fresh warnings from the IMF about the global economy including the potential impact on Australia.
It places new pressure on Treasurer Jim Chalmers ahead of the budget as the government deals with a fuel supply scare that pulled the Prime Minister back to the country in the middle of an overseas mission to secure supplies for the nation.
This is an incident that obviously is regrettable, particularly given the timing in which it has occurred.
As Labor tries to steady nerves, the opposition is pushing a hard line of migration, with Angus Taylor reaching for politics that feels both familiar and deliberately divisive. So much so that it prompted a former Prime Minister to release a scathing statement.
Keating said Angus Taylor marks himself out as a political leader unworthy of the leadership of a party that has managed Australia for the greater part of the last century.
Today, Press Gallery veteran Paul Bongiorno on the economic anxiety hanging over the government, the opposition's incendiary pitch on migration and how both sides are trying to define the moment. It's Saturday, April 18. Paul, this week we had a pretty dire warning from the IMF that a global recession is looming as Jim Chalmers met with economic ministers in DC.
How bad is it looking for Australia and for the government?
Well, Daniel, I've got to say it's looking very bad for everybody, Australia and the government, and we're all in the one boat. In fact, I don't think we can make a distinction between the government and Australia here. Albanese pointed out that what we've got is the biggest global spike that's ever happened in Australian history when it comes to oil and energy.
Of course, we're not immune. This is a global spike. It's the biggest global spike that has ever happened in history. And that's had an impact on inflation and on the price of fuel right around the world.
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Chapter 3: How is the Albanese government handling the fuel supply crisis?
And if we want to get a bit of an insight into what the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, thinks these impacts will be, it put out its World Economic Outlook during the week.
Of course, if the shock gets larger, if the disruptions get more severe, then we could get more of an inflation shock that would last more into next year.
And it says the United States-Israel war on Iran risks creating, quote, an energy crisis of unprecedented scale that could end in global recession. And Jim Chalmers doesn't quibble with the assessment of the IMF that the situation could see Australia with higher inflation than most advanced economies.
I can't think of a more sort of complex time in which to prepare a federal budget in recent memory, Paul. How much pressure does the IMF warning and the war put on the Treasury ahead of next month's budget? And how does it change what we can expect?
All of those questions are extremely relevant.
And Chalmers, I think, summed it up pretty well when he said during the week, this is a very serious, very dangerous time for the world. Now, Australia is better placed and better prepared than a number of other countries, but we won't be spared the fallout from this very substantial economic shock.
And the world bank, the IMF, is warning that incomes, that is national incomes, personal incomes, will obviously fall. Now, this will be made worse if the usual prescription that we get from the Reserve Bank and central banks around the world is that if inflation is running out of control, you up interest rates. So you make life more miserable, especially for borrowers.
And by borrowers, we don't only mean people borrowing to fund their mortgage, to fund their home, but borrowers in business, small business. This can have, well, a devastating impact. And during the week, I was talking to a
quite senior advisor to the Prime Minister, who said that Albanese is well aware that walking this tightrope is in danger of poking the bear of the Reserve Bank, that if the Reserve Bank judges that the Treasurer or the government's got it wrong, they'll go harder with interest rates. So it's more than a dilemma. It's a real fix that the government and the country is in.
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Chapter 4: What is the opposition's stance on migration and how is it affecting politics?
At the heart of all the pressure that's on the government at the moment is the fuel supply situation, which was exacerbated this week when one of only two Australian oil refineries was engulfed in a massive fire.
Good afternoon. The impact of a fire at the Corio oil refinery in Geelong is expected to have serious consequences. The blaze is now extinguished after a small gas leak sparked an explosion late last night.
The PM flew home early from Malaysia to address the situation. What do you make of the fact that he rushed back to stand in front of the oil refinery and talk about it? Couldn't have Richard Miles just done that, seeing as he was a local member and the Deputy Prime Minister?
Look, Anthony Albanese is acutely aware of just how perilous the politics of this situation is. He cannot afford, as the Prime Minister, the government cannot afford to look like it's sitting back, shrugging its shoulders and telling the rest of us to eat cake.
That's why Albanese embarked on personal diplomacy going up into Asia to personally argue our case to our major fuel suppliers in Singapore, Brunei and Malaysia. Sure, our diplomats could have done it. The high commissioners could have knocked on the doors. But when the prime minister turns up, it gives it weight. And it also says that we're taking this extremely seriously.
And I think that's why he flew directly back from Malaysia into Geelong this week to say, I'm here. I want reassurances that what is happening here is being dealt with in the best possible way.
Do you think, Paul, that if the Prime Minister and the government is not seen as dealing with this situation appropriately, that Albanese recognises that this is a potential government wrecker?
Well, it is indeed. And I think that also we've seen historically governments lose elections rather than oppositions win them. And you can't necessarily count on the opposition continuing to be as hopeless as it has been in the last year or so.
Through all of this, Paul, the PM, of course, is trying to keep everyone calm, which was the aim of Albanese's highly ridiculed national address a couple of weeks ago. You've got some inside intel on what was going on there. What have you heard?
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Chapter 5: How does the IMF warning affect the upcoming federal budget?
One Nation and an independent candidate are vying to win that by-election, and the Liberals are desperate to claw back as much support from people who have decided to abandon the coalition or the Liberals for One Nation. In other words, Taylor is trying to outdo Pauline Hanson, and there's plenty of evidence in state and federal elections past that that won't work.
Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how it plays out of Farragut, given that's a seat that relies heavily on immigration for its workforce in some aspects of that seat.
Exactly.
The ghost of Christmas Island past John Howard was in the front row. How Howard-esque was Taylor's speech?
Well, Angus Taylor even came to paraphrasing a famous battle cry of John Howard in the 2001 election.
To those who say we'll be in breach of the Refugee Convention, we'll decide who deserves protection and the circumstances in which that protection is granted.
Now, Taylor made a big thing of saying that his immigration policy is Australian values placed, but it seems that Taylor is prepared to dump the humanitarian values that underpin the UN conventions that he here is blithely promising to discard.
Speaking of ghost PMs past, Paul Keating came out with some withering words for Angus Taylor. Can you take us through some of what he had to say?
Well, Keating was appalled enough to release a withering statement against the Taylor immigration policy prescriptions. He likens them to Donald Trump's crackdown in the United States, the vetting of people's social media at the border, the threat to kick people out who don't somehow measure up to the Australian values statement.
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