Labor’s One Nation problem
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What did One Nation’s surprise win in Secret Harbour reveal about WA politics?
I'm Ruby Jones and you're listening to 7am. One Nation has declared that politics has changed after snatching a formerly safe Labor seat in a surprise by-election victory in WA over the weekend. Until now, it had been the coalition feeling the effects of the orange wave, but now Labor officially has a Pauline problem of its own. So what does this mean for the government and the country? Today, WA political reporter for Business News, Gary Ad said, on how One Nation won over WA voters and whether it can replicate that victory elsewhere. It's Wednesday, September 2. So, Gary, Labor has held this seat, Secret Harbour, which is in the outer suburbs of Perth for decades now. Then last Saturday, One Nation walked in and beat them pretty comfortably.
How surprising was that result?
vary in terms of the size of it. Look, I think we've got to start at 2025, the state election. Labor won 61.5% of the vote on two-party preferred basis. So the nearest rival at that point was the Liberals, and they had 38.5% two-party preferred. Even with the massive Labor win, there was still almost a 20% swing against Labor. And that went towards the Liberals. So that's to give you an idea. 18 months, about 18 months. And then you look at what happened on the weekend and One Nation emerged with 57% of the vote on a two-party preferred basis. And that compared to Labor's 43%. The switch could not have been any more dramatic in the space of 18 months. Extraordinary.
They came with the big labor machine. They came with their smear tactics. They came with their hecklers on the polling booths. And we marched right through it.
Well, let's talk a bit about Labor's candidate for the election, Georgia Tree. So she's a former Labor staffer and lobbyist. Tell me a bit more about her and why she was chosen, what Labor thought she was going to bring.
She's a longtime Labor Party member, had more recently taken a job with Woodside.
So I'm Georgia Tree. I'm Labor's candidate for Secret Harbor. I grew up in Wombra. I went to Wombra Community High School. I've lived or worked in this community my whole life. My parents met in the
Pilbara. And she was seen as a local candidate because of her history there. There's no doubt about that. That's how she was sold to the electorate until, of course, the point where that question gets asked, are you living in the electorate? Oh, actually, no, I'm living in the city.
Like many people, I moved to the city for work, but that doesn't mean that I don't know the needs of this community or don't feel the needs of this community deeply. We
all know that politicians don't always live in their electorates, but what seemed to happen this time around was that there was a disdain for the fact that she was living in the leafy inner suburbs of Perth rather than down there with the people of Secret Harbour. That became a sticking point right from the get-go.
Tell me a little more about what people in the electorate said to you about Georgia Tree in the lead up to the election. What were their thoughts on her as a candidate and on Labor more generally?
Well, on Labor, there was a problem. And the unusual thing, again, in this by-election, and I think that's why it's getting a fair bit of analysis on the East Coast, is that usually a by-election in a place like Western Australia is run on sort of state issues, okay? But there absolutely seems to be some protest vote towards Labor. So Georgia Tree was the Labor candidate and she seemed to be wearing the protest vote that was there for, dare I say it, the federal Labor government, Anthony Albanese. That was on the lips of a lot of people who were voting in Secret Harbour. This was an opportunity to send a message to Canberra and the One Nation brand was loud and it was everywhere.
Yeah, the way that things unfolded during that campaign seemed to make things worse for her, not better. There were events where she was standing beside the Premier, Roger Cook, but she wasn't allowed to answer questions. Tell me a bit more about what happened.
That was one of the most bizarre things I've ever seen.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What did One Nation’s surprise win in Secret Harbour reveal about WA politics?
0:01–4:51
2
How dramatic was the swing from Labor to One Nation in the by‑election?
4:51–6:46
3
Why was Labor’s candidate Georgia Tree criticised for living outside the electorate?
6:46–10:22
4
What campaign mistakes did Labor make that helped One Nation win?
10:22–12:22
5
How did One Nation’s candidate Luke Hurtigen connect with voters and what controversies surrounded him?
12:22–14:54
6
What does the Secret Harbour result mean for Labor’s chances in the 2025 WA state election?
14:54–16:44
Speakers
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