Dwarkesh and Noah Smith on AGI and the Economy

In this episode, Erik Torenberg is joined in the studio by Dwarkesh Patel and Noah Smith to explore one of the biggest questions in tech: what exactly is artificial general intelligence (AGI), and how close are we to achieving it?They break down:Competing definitions of AGI — economic vs. cognitive vs. “godlike”Why reasoning alone isn’t enough — and what capabilities models still lackThe debate over substitution vs. complementarity between AI and human laborWhat an AI-saturated economy might look like — from growth projections to UBI, sovereign wealth funds, and galaxy-colonizing robotsHow AGI could reshape global power, geopolitics, and the future of workAlong the way, they tackle failed predictions, surprising AI limitations, and the philosophical and economic consequences of building machines that think, and perhaps one day, act, like us. Timecodes: 0:00 Intro0:33 Defining AGI and General Intelligence2:38 Human and AI Capabilities Compared7:00 AI Replacing Jobs and Shifting Employment15:00 Economic Growth Trajectories After AGI17:15 Consumer Demand in an AI-Driven Economy31:00 Redistribution, UBI, and the Future of Income31:58 Human Roles and the Evolving Meaning of Work41:21 Technology, Society, and the Human Future45:43 AGI Timelines and Forecasting Horizons54:04 The Challenge of Predicting AI's Path57:37 Nationalization, Geopolitics, and the Global AI Race1:07:10 Brand and Network Effects in AI Dominance1:09:31 Final Thoughts  Resources: Find Dwarkesh on X: https://x.com/dwarkesh_spFind Dwarkesh on YT: https://www.youtube.com/c/DwarkeshPatelSubscribe to Dwarkesh’s Substack: https://www.dwarkesh.com/Find Noah on X: https://x.com/noahpinionSubscribe to Noah’s Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenbergPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures. Stay Updated:Find a16z on XFind a16z on LinkedInListen to the a16z Podcast on SpotifyListen to the a16z Podcast on Apple PodcastsFollow our host: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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