Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading & AOC Might Win It All in 2028
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What predictions does Nate Silver make for the 2028 elections?
Partisanship is the gravity that dictates every election in the US, right? My job, don't worry, I will get criticized if we say, oh, whatever, Gavin Newsom or AOC is a 55% favorite and they lose. But 43 of the 50 states stated, we could probably predict right now with 97% confidence who they'll vote for in 2028. And it's not because of rigging, it's because... polarization and partisanship are very powerful forces that we can't seem to escape from.
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What issues are affecting California's ballot counting process?
Don't spend hundreds or thousands on services you can get from Northwest for free. Visit northwestregisteredagent.com slash all in free. and start using free resources to build your business today. All right, everybody, welcome back to the All In interview program. We are delighted today to have the one, the only Nate Silver on the program, gambler, statistician, podcaster, sub stacker. Go subscribe right now for a hundy, quick hundy at Silver Bulletin over at sub stack. It's a great sub stack. How are you doing, brother? Nice to see you with your Knicks hat on.
I'm good. You know, I think I have like one more week to wear the Knicks hat. It's a little bulky, not super podcast video friendly, but I, you know, once in 53 years, once in my lifetime, at least. Did you go to any of the playoff games? I went to a bunch of the Philly series. I went to, I think as Jason did, I was in Philly for like the New York City takeover of Wells Fargo, or we know where the hell it's called now, Infinity or something.
How is the Democratic Party experiencing internal conflict?
Yeah. I went to the Trump game, which was not the right game to go to, but I wanted to be there. I wanted to kind of cover it for my readers. I felt like it was a moment where New York might triumph out of this shit show that it was to get into the arena.
You had to show up, what, two hours early to get in?
Three hours? I am not a particularly prompt person. So I got there at like 6, 6.05 for an 8.30 game. Yeah.
What strategies might Democrats employ to win in 2028?
lined up. You're supposed to get in on 6th Avenue and 33rd. And I was like on 6th and 30th or 29th. It wasn't the worst. It wasn't the least efficient process I've ever seen. New York has a way of getting things done. And you just kind of like follow people. And once you get in, I mean, it was like literally TSA security. They like literally like look at your wallet by hand and they take your lighters and your pens and your vapes and everything like that. And once you get in, it was pretty normal. I did feel like the crowd was
How does social media contribute to political polarization?
a little bit fatigued by the second half, which was a choppy second half where there were some questionable officiating decisions.
I actually... Did you bet any of the games? And did you find the odds were off anywhere?
I had the Knicks to win the Eastern Conference Finals, and then after they wrapped up their series... I bet them to win the finals against either OKC or San Antonio.
What are the predictions for the 2026 midterm elections?
So I actually, the ticket was not cheap. I paid, it would not cover Jason's tickets, but I was able to cover my 200 level bowl seat with the profits from those non-Homer bets. I thought the Knicks were legitimately overlooked in the East. And when you see a team that wins, like that game against Atlanta, where we were up like literally like 77 to 22 points, Yeah, I was there.
Why is Gavin Newsom struggling in polls compared to AOC?
As somebody who studies this stuff and builds models, to see that kind of signature significance for that level of dominance over whatever it was, four rounds of the playoffs, that's real. That's not noise.
Do you bet prediction markets, or how do you bet? Big Tony.
I don't bet through Big Tony.
What factors could influence the outcome of future elections?
If you are someone who's perceived... So I've been limited by DraftKings and MGM. A lot of the traditional retail sportsbooks limit you. The prediction markets do not. I consult for Polymarket, I should say. So if you're a sharp bettor, I have other issues, believe me, with the prediction markets.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What predictions does Nate Silver make for the 2028 elections?
0:00–0:54
2
What issues are affecting California's ballot counting process?
0:54–1:57
3
How is the Democratic Party experiencing internal conflict?
1:57–2:24
4
What strategies might Democrats employ to win in 2028?
2:24–2:54
5
How does social media contribute to political polarization?
2:54–3:14
6
What are the predictions for the 2026 midterm elections?
3:14–3:37
7
Why is Gavin Newsom struggling in polls compared to AOC?
3:37–3:56
8
What factors could influence the outcome of future elections?
3:56–1:00:21
Speakers
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