Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
You're listening to American Power. I'm your host, Nat Towson, stand-up comedian, political speech writer, many other kinds of writer, and of course, most likely to be carved into cuneiform and left for generations to come, podcast host. I am joined, as always, with my panel of experts. Up first, our expert on foreign policy and the military, Chad Scott. Chad, how's it going?
Going great, Nat. Looking forward to this discussion with both of you.
Me too. I think it's going to be a really good one. And of course, our expert on all things energy, renewable energy, oil, oil markets around the world. You know him as Mr. Global. Matt Randolph is here. Matt, how's it going?
Great.
It's going great.
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Chapter 2: How is the U.S. handling the situation with Iran?
We've got a lot to discuss in this episode. Obviously, the situation in Iran, which we discussed quite a bit on this show, is continuing to develop. For the listener, we are recording this around 6 p.m. on Monday, June 1st. So if you're listening to it, that's what we know.
And I also want to remind our listeners or viewers who come to us from YouTube that if you want to get the podcast earlier, it drops in your podcast feed the morning of every Wednesday. I want to start today's episode with a little bit of an update on the situation in Iran. Obviously, we are extremely close once again to a solution right around the corner.
Obviously, Trump is about to negotiate the perfect deal with Iran. Chad, am I correct?
I mean, you're correct in that this is the 12th time that we have gotten to what I would say the one-yard line of a ceasefire, and just not being able to punch it in. We're just dealing with self-inflicted... casualties when it comes to trying to develop this, this ceasefire. And a lot of it has to do not necessarily with Trump wanting the, or having the will to do it. We can get there.
Chapter 3: What impact does the U.S.-Iran stalemate have on global energy markets?
It's that every time he comes to the table with what looks like a, a true meaningful ceasefire and some sort of memorandum of understanding with regard to what the terms of this, this ceasefire will look like.
he backs off because it becomes politically toxic for him, largely because every time something leaks, it looks like it's going to be worse than what was the Obama Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. And for him, he just doesn't want the optics of looking worse than Obama. So right now, this quote-unquote ceasefire, it's really not a ceasefire. I've said this before. The U.S.
and Iran are shooting at each other. The Israelis are shooting at Hezbollah and the Lebanon. Just today, Trump said that he, Had a discussion with Netanyahu and Netanyahu and Lebanon have said, oh, we're going to we're going to quiet down the fighting a bit. That's not a ceasefire. Just having less fighting means you're still fighting. So we're we're seeing this this.
really rhetorical battle now. It's not going to come to anything where we're going to see an outcome.
Chapter 4: How are data centers affecting the American power grid?
We have cargo ships. They're getting through. A lot of them are running either at U.S. permission along the Omani coastline, or they're running through on the Iranian side where the U.S. can't touch them because they remain in Iranian control. water's too close for comfort for the U.S.
Navy, and then they end up moving into Pakistani waters, which we won't touch them because we have sovereign agreements with the Pakistanis. So the blockade is not really a blockade. So everything is just rhetorical. It's just rhetoric. It's not the reality on ground. Iranian oil's getting through. They're making money.
And it's interesting because—and maybe Matt can elaborate a bit on this—but If we have even let's just say what we're seeing is one third of Iranian oil is getting through because the U.S.
Chapter 5: What are the economic implications of rising energy costs due to AI?
has allowed like Chinese oil through or Indian oil through or Pakistani oil because they don't want that incident to they don't want to deal with the incident of of blowing up a Chinese ship or whatever like that. And if it's only if only one third of them are getting through, but oil is twice as much. Really, Iran's not losing any money here.
If my math is roughly correct, they may be losing some. But what I think the calculus is right now is we're looking at some sort of escalation will be required. And that's something Trump doesn't want because oil is going to rise and it's going to just be politically toxic. So right now we have these frameworks that keep being leaked by frustrating reporters like Barack out of Axios.
I'll say his name this time around. He just keeps dropping these reports that are just wrong and nothing's moving. So. It just looks like we're just bouncing between kind of from bad to worse and then back to bad, then back to worse. And that's just kind of where we're at right now with regard to the Iranian situation.
Well, Matt, could you talk a little bit about the economic reality of that, what Chad was saying? Like, is this actually hurting Iran or is Iran actually functioning in terms of oil pretty regularly? Yeah.
Chapter 6: How does AI influence military capabilities and strategies?
I would say that the idea that you can starve out Iran from the beginning was a complete fallacy. Yeah. I mean, this country's been starving for a thousand years. What are you going to do to them that hadn't already been done? Like, this is, you know, starving out Americans and starving out Iranians is two different things. So you can punish Iran a lot and they'll just take it.
They are still selling oil. The truth is, we really don't know how much. But even if they're just selling what they can get, you know, through rail systems into different parts of China and stuff that it'll keep them afloat. You know, I mean, yeah, they'll be hungry, but you're not going to beat Iran by starving them. That's just not a thing. That's not how it works.
And do you think that's a cultural legacy of decades plus of like resilience against Western influence? You're like, they're used to this.
Well, I mean, a lot of Middle Eastern countries' identities are tied to being in this situation, you know, being oppressed or, you know, difficulty, strife.
Chapter 7: What are the environmental concerns associated with data centers?
I just, I never thought the starving them was a good idea. It just... Especially if you're trying, and forget the idea that they're trying to win the hearts and minds of anyone in Iran. You don't starve a country and win their hearts and minds. Of course. You know what I mean? You're only making Iranians mad. You don't win people over with enormous cruelty. Right. That's exactly what I mean.
I guess that does make sense. It's really hard to say how much money they're making, but I know how much money they made when we lifted the sanctions. And they were getting full price for their oil there for a month or two. They made enough money then to probably sustain them for a year. And a lot of people forget how much gold Iran has.
Chapter 8: What future trends should we expect in energy and AI technologies?
Like, they can live off their gold reserve for, I've heard, up to two years. If that's true, I don't know. But there's always other sources of income. There's always other countries that are willing to step in and help.
if they get a slice of the pie later when everything's over, like China, probably Russia, like I just never thought the idea of starving them out was a serious thing that could actually work.
Well, it's really fascinating too, because That actually almost parallels with one of the more the extreme opposite of of that, that just let's starve them out in this idea of let's go back to full military escalation. And my question is, what would a military escalation accomplish? Because we've already hit like 13000 targets.
What more targets are there going to be that the juice is worth the squeeze, so to speak? I mean, we spent $30 to $40 billion and counting on this war already. So if we ramp back up into the fight, what is that going to do? Because we're just going to start hitting smaller, smaller, less strategically important targets, or we go the route of...
where Trump seems perfectly happy to do this, just total war, kind of scorched earth, destroy their dams, their power plants, their bridges. So really, you're left with this option of If we escalate, to what end? What is it going to bring about?
And if you're going to escalate, you're going to have to escalate in a way that is going to cause immense pain and suffering, or you're going to escalate in a way that is just for the headlines. So you can say, look, we're launching sorties, we're blowing up, I don't know, this singular missile battery, but it's really not going to be that effective for the broader strategy.
Right, but you're saying that sometimes, you know, this overwhelming force... You're talking about atrocities on a level they haven't even committed yet, like would be the other option. I'm not saying we can't de-escalate, but I'm saying they're either... They're either...
pushing for essentially narrative wins like you're saying wins on paper or the other alternative the fear is that they'll escalate to a level of of something you know like a full-scale ground invasion or something something that we really are not prepared for but would be some form of overwhelming force that they would attempt to to enact
Yeah, I truly believe what this looks like is there's going to be some force. We're going to do something. Trump is either going to leave, as Matt suggested last episode, where he's like, we're just going to leave. But he can't just leave cleanly. He's going to have to go in and look like he's the tough guy and he's going to blow a couple things up and then leave.
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