Credit Markets: Risks, Rewards, and the Road Ahead | EP181

In this episode, we discuss credit markets with Brian Carney, lead portfolio manager of the Mawer Global Credit Opportunities strategy. Brian touches on the tightening of credit spreads, risks in the leveraged loan market, and the limited compensation for high-yield bonds relative to their risks. He also reviews concerns about U.S. government credit quality, private credit profitability, and corporate policy shifts. Looking back on Mawer's GCO strategy performance in 2024, Brian highlights future plans for growth, process refinement, and team expansion. Key Takeaways: Credit spreads are tightening across all markets, benefiting investors but reducing risk premiums. U.S.-centric policies support domestic companies, yet lenders may not share in the gains. Brian recommends investors avoid chasing yield in lower-quality or long-duration bonds. Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) drive the $1.2 trillion leveraged loan market, with issuance surging in 2024. This leverage-heavy, opaque market raises concerns about risk-taking. If dislocation occurs, leveraged loans could suffer alongside high-yield bonds, making it a key area for monitoring. High-yield bonds offer 7% returns, but history shows adding even 25% to a portfolio can significantly increase downside risk. With only a 0.6% incremental yield benefit today, investors aren't adequately compensated for the risk, making caution more prudent than yield chasing. Concerns include the U.S. government's credit quality, private credit's profitability favoring managers over investors, and ensuring portfolio companies maintain long-term stability despite short-term policy shifts. Monitoring these factors closely remains a priority. Future plans for Mawer's GCO strategy include expanding individual and institutional adoption, refining processes, leveraging technology, and selectively growing the team. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/ 

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