Quarterly Update | Q3 2024 | EP168

Portfolio Manager Crista Caughlin discusses the economy and factors that drove markets in the third quarter of 2024. Key points from this episode: In the third quarter, most central banks either continued cutting rates – like the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada – or started cutting rates – like the U.S. Federal Reserve.  Inflation risks have diminished and downside risks to growth and employment have increased, so central banks are responding with easier policy. Crista believes the Bank of Canada will continue to make 25 basis point cuts at future meetings, but a 50-basis point cut is potentially on the table thanks to the Fed's more aggressive cut. Because central banks are easing policy and the market expects them to continue to do so, the yield curve has started to normalize. All else equal, a faster, more aggressive central bank reduces the probability of a recession. The third quarter was a Goldilocks scenario. Growth was weak enough to allow central banks to ease policy, which is really good for bonds and interest-rate-sensitive equity sectors, but it was not so weak that there were obvious signs of a recession. Regardless of whether central bank easing corresponded to a recession or a soft landing, equities have historically gone higher and spreads tighter after the first central bank cut. One of the main questions on Crista's mind going into the fourth quarter: How long will growth and policy be tailwinds driving the markets? Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, MBA, CAIA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Crista Caughlin, CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager For more details and full transcript visit: https://mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/  Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

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