The Canadian Bond Balancing Act: Trade Policy, Central Banks, and Economic Growth Impacts | EP 199

In this episode, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Crista Caughlin breaks down the macro forces driving bond markets in 2025. From trade uncertainty to central bank policy shifts, Crista explains how these themes are shaping Canadian fixed income performance and where she sees opportunities ahead.   Key highlights: Trade policy uncertainty, fiscal stimulus, and tighter financial conditions have been key macroeconomic themes shaping global and Canadian bond markets, with U.S. trade actions and paused tariffs reducing some volatility but still weighing on Canadian growth and exports. Central banks, including the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve, have shifted from a wait-and-see approach to resuming rate cuts as growth slows and inflation pressures moderate, though questions about central bank independence and timing of policy moves remain. Canadian bond market performance has been driven by both falling interest rates—especially at the short end of the curve—and tightening credit spreads, with shorter maturities and lower-quality credits outperforming, while longer-dated bonds have lagged due to concerns about persistent inflation. The current strategy emphasizes a steepening yield curve, overweight positions in shorter-dated, higher-quality corporate bonds, and caution on longer maturities, reflecting expectations for continued central bank easing and ongoing risks from inflation and credit fundamentals. Despite recent headlines about rising bond-equity correlations and market risks, fixed income remains a valuable portfolio diversifier, offering higher yields than in recent years and providing a cushion against volatility and modest rate increases.   Host: Kevin Minas, CFA– Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Christa Caughlin, CFA– Portfolio Manager   This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.  Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social:  LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

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