Confirmation Bias As Misfire of Normal Bayesian Reasoning

https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/02/12/confirmation-bias-as-misfire-of-normal-bayesian-reasoning/   From the subreddit: Humans Are Hardwired To Dismiss Facts That Don't Fit Their Worldview. Once you get through the preliminary Trump supporter and anti-vaxxer denunciations, it turns out to be an attempt at an evo psych explanation of confirmation bias: Our ancestors evolved in small groups, where cooperation and persuasion had at least as much to do with reproductive success as holding accurate factual beliefs about the world. Assimilation into one's tribe required assimilation into the group's ideological belief system. An instinctive bias in favor of one's in-group" and its worldview is deeply ingrained in human psychology. I think the article as a whole makes good points, but I'm increasingly uncertain that confirmation bias can be separated from normal reasoning. Suppose that one of my friends says she saw a coyote walk by her house in Berkeley. I know there are coyotes in the hills outside Berkeley, so I am not too surprised; I believe her.

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