Mantic Monday 6/13/22

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-61422 Mantic Monday 6/13/22 It's been a while since we've done one of these, hopefully no major new crises started while we were . . . oh. Darn. Mantic Monkey Metaculus predicts 17000 cases and 400 deaths from monkeypox this year. But as usual, it's all about the distribution 90% chance of fewer than 400,000 cases. 95% chance of fewer than 2.2 million cases. 98% chance of fewer than 500 million cases. This is encouraging, but a 2% chance of 500 million cases (there have been about 500 million recorded COVID infections total) is still very bad. Does Metaculus say this because it's true, or because there will always be a few crazy people entering very large numbers without modeling anything carefully? I'm not sure. How would you test that?

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