(Includes full article narration.) I have an article summarizing attempts to forecast AI progress, including a five year check-in on the predictions in Grace et al (2017). It's not here, it's at asteriskmag.com, a rationalist / effective altruist magazine: Through A Glass Darkly. This is their AI issue (it's not always so AI focused). https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/through-a-glass-darkly-in-asterisk
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