Menu
Sign In Search Podcasts Charts People & Topics Add Podcast API Pricing
Podcast Image

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

Ukraine Warcasting

01 Mar 2022

Description

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ukraine-warcasting Yeah, I know you're saturated with Ukraine content. Yeah, I know everyone wants to relate their hobbyhorse to Ukraine. But I think it's genuinely useful to talk about prediction markets right now. Current conventional wisdom is that the invasion was a miscalculation on Putin's part, after he surrounded himself with so many yes-men that he lost touch with reality. But Ukraine miscalculated too; until almost the day of the invasion, Zelenskyy was saying everything would be okay. And if there's a nuclear exchange, it will be because of miscalculation - I don't know what the miscalculation will be, just that nobody goes into a nuclear exhange because they want to. Preserving people's access to reality and helping them avoid miscalculations are peacekeeping measures, sometimes very important ones. The first part of this post looks at various markets' predictions of how the war will go from here (Zvi published something like this a few hours before I could, so this will mostly duplicate his work). The second part very briefly tries to evaluate which markets have been most accurate so far - though this is a topic which deserves at least paper-length treatment. The third part looks at which pundits deserve eternal glory for publicly making strong true predictions, and which pundits deserve . . . something else, for doing . . . other things.

Audio
Featured in this Episode

No persons identified in this episode.

Transcription

This episode hasn't been transcribed yet

Help us prioritize this episode for transcription by upvoting it.

0 upvotes
šŸ—³ļø Sign in to Upvote

Popular episodes get transcribed faster

Comments

There are no comments yet.

Please log in to write the first comment.