Astral Codex Ten Podcast

Your Book Review: Order Without Law

10 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

[This is the first of many finalists in the book review contest. It's not by me - it's by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting i...

Metis And Bodybuilders

09 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/metis-and-bodybuilders Fitness researcher Menno Henselmans writes about optimal program design for bodybuilders...

Two Unexpected Multiple Hypothesis Testing Problems

07 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/two-unexpected-multiple-hypothesis   I. Start with Lior Pachter's Mathematical analysis of "mathematical anal...

2020 Predictions: Calibration Results

07 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2020-predictions-calibration-results   At the beginning of every year, I make predictions. At the end of every...

Ambidexterity And Cognitive Closure

04 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ambidexterity-and-cognitive-closure   Back in a more superstitious time, people believed left-handers were in ...

[Classic] The Parable Of The Talents

03 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/01/31/the-parable-of-the-talents/   [Content note: scrupulosity and self-esteem triggers, IQ, brief discussion of we...

Oh, The Places You'll Go When Trying To Figure Out The Right Dose Of Escitalopram

01 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/oh-the-places-youll-go-when-trying   I. What is the right dose of Lexapro (escitalopram)? The official FDA pa...

Toward A Bayesian Theory Of Willpower

26 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/towards-a-bayesian-theory-of-willpower   I. What is willpower? Five years ago, I reviewed Baumeister and Tier...

More Antifragile, Diversity Libertarianism, And Corporate Censorship

26 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/more-antifragile-diversity-libertarianism In yesterday's review of Antifragile, I tried to stick to something...

Book Review: Antifragile

25 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-antifragile   Nassim Taleb summarizes the thesis of Antifragile as: Everything gains or loses fr...

Adding My Data Point To The Discussion Of Substack Advances

24 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/adding-my-data-point-to-the-discussion   [warning: boring inside baseball post] From The Hypothesis: Here's ...

Book Review: The New Sultan

20 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-the-new-sultan   I. If you only learn one thing from this post: it's pronounced "air-do-wan". If yo...

Sleep Is The Mate Of Death

18 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/sleep-is-the-mate-of-death   Melancholic depressive patients report that they feel worst in the morning, just a...

Mantic Monday: Mantic Matt Y

15 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-mantic-matt-y   The current interest in forecasting grew out of Iraq-War-era exasperation with t...

Richard Nixon Vs. Cool

13 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/richard-nixon-vs-cool   In the highlights post on class, I wrote: When I was in middle school, I used to wonde...

[Classic] Contra Grant On Exaggerated Differences

13 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/08/07/contra-grant-on-exaggerated-differences/   Contra Grant On Exaggerated Differences I. An article by Adam Gran...

Trapped Priors As A Basic Problem Of Rationality

11 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/trapped-priors-as-a-basic-problem   Introduction and review Last month I talked about van der Bergh et al's w...

The Consequences Of Radical Reform

10 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-consequences-of-radical-reform   The thread that runs from Edmund Burke to James Scott and Seeing Like A ...

Highlights From The Comments On Class

07 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-class   To my surprise, we have some genuine upper-class people reading this b...

Highlights From The Comments On March Links

05 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-march   [link back to the original links post: here] On the article about pr...

Links For March

04 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-march   Warning: I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spott...

Shilling For Big Mitochondria

03 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/shilling-for-big-mitochondria   In the 1930s, a shady outfit called Isabella Laboratories made a popular over-...

Mantic Monday: Scoring Rule Controversy

02 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-scoring-rule-controversy   Metaculus scoring rule controversy Zvi considered using some Metaculu...

Bay Area Plant-Based Meat Reviews

26 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/bay-area-plant-based-meat-reviews   By this point you've probably tried Impossible Burgers, and you know that ...

A Modest Proposal For Republicans: Use The Word "Class"

26 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/a-modest-proposal-for-republicans   Read this first: Book Review: Fussell On Class Dear Republican Party: I h...

Book Review: Fussell On Class

25 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-fussell-on-class   I. Paul Fussell wants to talk about class. (well, wanted, past tense, it's a 1...

Mantic Monday: Judging April COVID Predictions

24 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-judging-april-covid   Since this is getting broader than just Metaculus, I'm changing the name t...

A Look Down Track B

22 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/a-look-down-track-b   I. Depression probably has something to do with decreased synaptogenesis in the brain, m...

Ezra Klein On Vetocracy

20 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ezra-klein-on-vetocracy   In my review last week of Ezra Klein's Why We're Polarized, I linked to a related V...

Highlights From The Comments On Cult Of Smart

20 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-cult   DeBoer argued that charter schools succeed through selection effects: t...

Book Review: The Cult Of Smart

20 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-the-cult-of-smart   Oscar Wilde supposedly said George Bernard Shaw "has no enemies, but is intens...

COVID/Vitamin D: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

17 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/covidvitamin-d-much-more-than-you   Most health articles ask you to act on their opinions. I am specifically a...

Coronavirus: Links, Discussion, Open Thread

16 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/coronavirus-links-discussion-open   So far there have been three waves of coronavirus cases in the US. The fir...

Statement on New York Times Article

14 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/statement-on-new-york-times-article   There was recently a negative article about me and my blog in the New Y...

The Precision Of Sensory Evidence

14 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-precision-of-sensory-evidence   In earlier posts, I've expressed confusion about two competing models of d...

List Of Fictional Cryptocurrencies Banned By The SEC

12 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

[previously in sequence: List Of Fictional Drugs Banned By The FDA, More Fictional Drugs Banned By The FDA] VatiCoin: After a thousand years, the C...

Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Tradeoffs And Failures

11 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

[previously in sequence: Taxometrics, Dynamical Systems. Epistemic status: speculative. This should go without saying, but when I talk about "failu...

Book Review: Why We're Polarized

11 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

I. Ezra Klein is great. I know a lot of people throw shade on him for founding Vox. But as Van Gogh said about God creating the world, "We must not ho...

Metaculus Monday 2/8/21

08 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thanks to everyone who commented last week with prediction markets I missed. Two of them seemed to be especially interesting. Polymarket is another c...

Journalism and Legible Expertise

08 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

I heard from a journalist yesterday after writing yesterday's post on WebMD. They've been trying to write a coronavirus article worthy of Zvi or any ...

WebMD, And The Tragedy Of Legible Expertise

06 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

I started a small database of psychiatry information. It's going well. I'm grateful for all your emails suggesting changes and corrections. Sort of. H...

Book Review Contest Final Rules

05 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thanks to everyone who has waited patiently for more information on this. I planned a book review contest for last summer, which I didn't get to do ...

Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Dynamical Systems

05 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

[Previously in sequence: Taxometrics] I. Imagine Alice has a chronic disease. Luckily, as long as she has a job, she will have health insurance. And ...

Riddle Of The Sphinx II: Sustained Release Riddlin'

03 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

I was driving down to LA when the cops pulled me over. "You have to turn back sir, the Sphinx here eats any traveler who can't answer her riddle." "I'...

Metaculus Monday

02 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Prediction markets are the future. They're a type of trustless, decentralized expertise that often equals or outperforms official sources. But they're...

Weyl Contra Me On Technocracy

31 Jan 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Glen Weyl posted a reply to my post criticizing his essay on technocracy, and kindly agreed to let me elevate it into a top-level post. (consider this...

Contra Weyl On Technocracy

30 Jan 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/contra-weyl-on-technocracy   I. I am not defending technocracy. Nobody ever defends technocracy. It's like "eli...

Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Taxometrics

28 Jan 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ontology-of-psychiatric-conditions   [reposted from here, with edits] I. Taxometrics is the study of whether ...

Know Your Amphetamines

26 Jan 2021

Contributed by Lukas

In the 1950s, a shady outfit called Obetrol Pharmaceuticals made a popular over-the-counter diet pill called Obetrol. If you're familiar with any of: ...

Logistics

25 Jan 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Logistics Don't worry, there will be real posts next week. Jan 22 Substack First, thanks for following me to Substack. I kno...

You're Probably Wondering Why I've Called You Here Today

22 Jan 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/youre-probably-wondering-why-ive   Welcome to Astral Codex Ten! Some of you are probably veterans of my old bl...

Still Alive

22 Jan 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/still-alive   I. This was a triumph I'm making a note here, huge success No, seriously, it was awful. I delete...

[Classic] Social Psychology Is A Flamethrower

17 Jan 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Mark Twain: There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact. I...

[Classic] Lizardman's Constant Is 4%

10 Jan 2021

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/04/12/noisy-poll-results-and-reptilian-muslim-climatologists-from-mars/   Beware of Phantom Lizardmen I have only do...

[Classic] We Are All MsScribe

28 Dec 2020

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/12/23/we-are-all-msscribe/   AskReddit asked recently: If you could only give an alien one thing to help them underst...

[Classic] Why Were Early Psychedelicists So Weird?

20 Dec 2020

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/04/28/why-were-early-psychedelicists-so-weird/   [Epistemic status: very speculative, asserted with only ~30% confid...

[Classic] The Influenza Of Evil

13 Dec 2020

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/01/13/evil-is-anti-inductive/   I. A recent Cracked piece: Five Everyday Groups Society Says It's Okay To Mock. It b...

[Meetup Audio] Professor Stuart Russell - Human Compatible

08 Dec 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Stuart Russell is a Professor of Computer Science at the University of California at Berkeley, holder of the Smith-Zadeh Chair in Engineering, and Dir...

[Classic] Reporter Degrees of Freedom

06 Dec 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Reporter Degrees Of Freedom I. A sample of Thursday's talk at Yale   These are four headlines describing the same study, Milkie, Nomaguchi and Den...

[Classic] How The West Was Won

30 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/07/25/how-the-west-was-won/   I. Someone recently linked me to Bryan Caplan's post A Hardy Weed: How Traditionalists...

[Classic] Reverse Voxsplaining: Drugs vs. Chairs

23 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/08/29/reverse-voxsplaining-drugs-vs-chairs/   [Content note: this is pretty much a rehash of things I've said befor...

[Classic] A Modern Myth

16 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/02/27/a-modern-myth/   1. Eris A middle-aged man, James, had come on stage believing it was an audition for American...

[Classic] A Theory About Religion

09 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/04/08/a-theory-of-religion/   Related to Monday's post but spun off for length reasons: my crazy theory about where...

Here Are The Nine Ways The Election Could End

04 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Link: https://slatestarscratchpad.tumblr.com/post/633822178059730944/here-are-the-nine-ways-the-election-could-end You are Joseph R. Biden Jr. You si...

[Classic] The Ideology Is Not The Movement

02 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

I. Why is there such a strong Sunni/Shia divide? I know the Comparative Religion 101 answer. The early Muslims were debating who was the rightful cali...

[Meetup Audio] Jason Crawford: "The Non-Linear Model of Innovation"

28 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

This week the SSC Meetup features guest speaker Jason Crawford, author the blog The Roots of Progress, discussing 'the non-linear model of innovation....

[Classic] Weak Men Are Superweapons

26 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

I. There was an argument on Tumblr which, like so many arguments on Tumblr, was terrible. I will rephrase it just a little to make a point. Alice said...

[Classic] Skin in the Game

19 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

I. One of the most interesting responses I got to my post supporting the junior doctors strike was by Salem, who said that this situation was (eth...

[Meetup Audio] David Friedman: "Legal Systems Very Different from Ours"

15 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

David Friedman on Legal Systems Very Different from Ours: A brief survey of a range of legal system, past and present, from Imperial China and Pericle...

[Classic] In The Future, Everyone Will Be Famous To Fifteen People

12 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

[Epistemic status: not very serious] [Content note: May make you feel overly scrutinized] Sometimes I hear people talking about how nobody notices the...

[Classic] The Lottery of Fascinations

05 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

I. Suppose I were to come out tomorrow as gay. I have amazing and wonderful friends, and I certainly wouldn't expect them to hate me forever or tell m...

[Meetup Audio] Diana Fleischman: Integrating Evolutionary Psychology and Behaviorism

30 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Integrating Evolutionary Psychology and Behaviorism Summary - All of us want to change other people's behavior to align more closely with our goals. ...

[Classic] Freedom On The Centralized Web

28 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

I. A lot of libertarians and anarcho-capitalists envision a future of small corporate states competing for migrants and capital by trying to have the ...

[Classic] Against Interminable Arguments

21 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

[Epistemic status: something I've been thinking about recently. There's a lot of complication around these issues and this is more to start a discussi...

[Meetup Audio] Connor Leahy on GPT-3 as an AI Fire Alarm

17 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Connor Leahy discusses the idea of an 'AGI Fire Alarm' and argues GPT-3 might be the last such warning we'll receive before it's too late to act.

[Classic] Should You Reverse Any Advice You Hear?

13 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Suppose a lot of that stuff about bravery debates is right. That lots of the advice people give is useful for some people, but that the opposite adv...

Update on my Situation

13 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

It's been two and a half months since I deleted the blog, so I owe all of you an update on recent events. I haven't heard anything from the New York...

[Classic] SSC Gives A Graduation Speech

07 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Trigger warning: deliberately provoking horror about graduates' real-​world post-​college prospects. Epistemic status: intended as persuasive spee...

[Classic] Yes, We Have Noticed The Skulls

01 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

[Related: Tyler Cowen on rationalists, Noah Smith on rationalists, Will Wilkinson on rationalists, etc] If I were an actor in an improv show, and m...

NYT Is Threatening My Safety By Revealing My Real Name, So I Am Deleting The Blog

23 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

So, I kind of deleted the blog. Sorry. Here's my explanation. Last week I talked to a New York Times technology reporter who was planning to write a...

Slightly Skew Systems of Government

18 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/06/17/slightly-skew-systems-of-government/ [Related To: Legal Systems Very Different From Ours Because I Just Made T...

Open Thread 156.25 + Signal Boost for Steve Hsu

18 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/06/16/open-thread-156-25/   Normally this would be a hidden thread, but I wanted to signal boost this request for he...

The Vision of Vilazodone and Vortioxetine

17 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/06/15/the-vision-of-vilazodone-and-vortioxetine/   I. One of psychiatry's many embarrassments is how many of our dru...

Wordy Wernicke's

13 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/06/11/wordy-wernickes/   There are two major brain areas involved in language. To oversimplify, Wernicke's area in th...

[Classic] Proving Too Much

13 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/04/13/proving-too-much/ The fallacy of Proving Too Much is when you challenge an argument because, in addition to pr...

The Obligatory GPT-3 Post

12 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/06/10/the-obligatory-gpt-3-post/   I. I would be failing my brand if I didn't write something about GPT-3, but I'm no...

Take the New Nootropics Survey

08 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

A few years ago I surveyed nootropics users about their experiences with different substances and posted the results here. Since then lots of new no...

Problems With Paywalls

06 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/06/04/problems-with-paywalls/   I. I hate paywalls on articles. Absolutely hate them. A standard pro-business argumen...

Book Review: Origin of Consciousness in the Breakdown of the Bicameral Mind

03 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/06/01/book-review-origin-of-consciousness-in-the-breakdown-of-the-bicameral-mind/ I. Julian Jaynes' The Origin Of Co...

Bush Did North Dakota

31 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/05/28/bush-did-north-dakota/   Continuing yesterday's discussion of fake news: Guess et al says that 46% percent of...

[Classic] Guided by the Beauty of Our Weapons

30 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/03/24/guided-by-the-beauty-of-our-weapons/   [Content note: kind of talking around Trump supporters and similar grou...

Creationism, Unchallenged

29 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/05/28/creationism-unchallenged/   How much should responsible news organizations report on stupid things? If they don...

"My Immortal" As Alchemical Allegory

28 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/05/26/my-immortal-as-alchemical-allegory/   I. From Vox: Solving The Mystery Of The Internet's Most Beloved And Not...

Coronalinks 5/18/20: When All You Have Is a Hammer, Everything Starts Looking Like a Dance

20 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/05/18/coronalinks-5-18-20-when-all-you-have-is-a-hammer-everything-starts-looking-like-a-dance/ It is the sixty-first...

[Classic] Cardiologists and Chinese Robbers

16 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/09/16/cardiologists-and-chinese-robbers/   I. It takes a special sort of person to be a cardiologist. This is not al...

Studies on Slack

14 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/05/12/studies-on-slack/   I. Imagine a distant planet full of eyeless animals. Evolving eyes is hard: they need to ev...

Book Review Contest: Call for Entries

07 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/05/05/book-review-contest-call-for-entries/   Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to write a book revie...

[Classic] The Goddess of Everything Else

02 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/08/17/the-goddess-of-everything-else-2/ [Related to: Specific vs. General Foragers vs. Farmers and War In Heaven, ...

Predictions for 2020

01 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/29/predictions-for-2020/   At the beginning of every year, I make predictions. At the end of every year, I score...

Give Yourself Gout for Fame and Profit

29 Apr 2020

Contributed by Lukas

https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/27/give-yourself-gout-for-fame-and-profit/   I. Actually, no. You should not do this. Most of you were probably a...