A Super El Niño Is Coming in 2026 | Astrum Earth
episodePreviously titled “A Super El Niño Is Coming in 2026” — renamed by the publisher on Aug 3, 2026
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What is a Super El Niño and why is it significant?
Something is shifting in the Pacific Ocean. It's not a storm or a current you can see from the surface, but a slow, powerful build-up of heat, spanning thousands of kilometres. And it's been playing a dangerous game of hide and seek. Now, out there for all to witness, the Pacific Ocean is undergoing a violent flip. The latest information suggests we are on the precipice of a Super El Nino, possibly the strongest El Nino event in 140 years. A very rare high-intensity episode that would propel global temperatures into uncharted territories. This isn't a seasonal shift, it's a global reorganization of energy. According to the latest data, there is now a 98% chance of El Niño emerging by August. And by September 2026, the rise of a full-blown Super El Niño is now almost inevitable.
This kind of El Niño would see intensified heat waves, floods, droughts and shifts in monsoon and hurricane patterns all around the world. Indeed, could a 2026 Super El Niño push our climate past the point of no return? I'm James Stewart and you're watching Astrum Earth. Join me today as we look at the mechanics of this climate engine. We'll discuss why 2026 is becoming the perfect storm for a record-breaking event. And we'll look at what a planet already pushed to the brink by climate change does when its largest natural cooling mechanism is replaced by a furnace.
How is the current El Niño different from previous ones?
I didn't expect to be making this video quite as quickly as I am to be honest with you. Let me take you back a few months to a video I made about the weak La Nina we had in 2025 that went into 2026. In fact it was so weak we suggested in that video that a Pacific flip was possible. A kind of climate whiplash where after months of La Nina's coal pattern the Pacific would be primed to swing hot and bring on a sort of monster of an El Nino. Now when I made that video, the chances of that actually happening were quite low, and we didn't know how hot things might get, if indeed they would at all. But as it turns out, that prediction was bang on, and it's coming true, unfortunately, right in front of our eyes.
And things are escalating pretty quickly. So here's a quick recap if you missed that video. The El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is a term used to describe a cycle of variations in the Pacific Ocean's surface temperatures and air pressure near the equator. Normally, trade winds drive warm surface water from near South America, the Eastern Pacific, towards Asia. As that warm water moves away from South America, cold water rises to replace it in a process called upwelling. This situation is called ENSO neutral. Now, if those trade winds are weaker than usual, this upwelling effect lessens, resulting in a warmer patch in the eastern Pacific Ocean. If those sea surface temperatures rise by more than half a degree Celsius above average, then that is an El Niño.
Conversely, when trade winds are stronger, ocean temperatures dip below average and we see a La Niña develop, where those temperatures are more than half a degree Celsius lower than average.
What factors contribute to the emergence of a Super El Niño?
This cycle lasts between 9 and 12 months and repeats every 2 to 7 years. And at the time of recording, we're in an ENSO neutral state, at least according to Noah. But not for much longer. During an El Nino, Eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures usually do reach around 1 to 3 degrees Celsius above normal, shifting tropical convection currents and jet streams. This typically brings wetter winters to California and some regions in South America, and drier conditions to Australia, Indonesia and Southern Africa. In fact, one strange quirk of El Niño is that it tends to suppress Atlantic hurricanes. What it does is increase upper-level winds across the tropical Atlantic. That then creates wind shear that pulls apart tropical storm systems before they can develop into the hurricanes.
But unfortunately it's bad news elsewhere because it enhances the potential for Pacific storms. That's due to an increase in energy in the ocean because warm surface water fuels the development of tropical storms which turn into cyclones.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is a Super El Niño and why is it significant?
0:00–1:46
2
How is the current El Niño different from previous ones?
1:46–3:26
3
What factors contribute to the emergence of a Super El Niño?
3:26–5:02
4
What are the potential global impacts of a Super El Niño?
5:02–6:56
5
How does a Super El Niño affect weather patterns worldwide?
6:56–8:27
6
What historical events have been influenced by past Super El Niños?
8:27–9:38
7
How does climate change interact with El Niño phenomena?
9:38–11:33
8
What can we expect in the future regarding Super El Niños?
11:33–22:17
Speakers
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