At Any Rate
Episodes
EM Fixed Income: The most wonderful time
17 Dec 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Jonny Goulden, Anezka Christovova and Ben Ramsey discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. Â This...
Global FX: Dollar down after Fed; central banks and US data center stage for FX next week
12 Dec 2025
Contributed by Lukas
This week, our Global FX Strategists break down what the recent move in global rates means for FX, and how the FOMC meeting impacted the broad dollar....
Global Commodities: Oil Outlook 2026/2027—Heavy Lifting
12 Dec 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Surpluses in 2025 are expected to widen further into 2026 and 2027, as global oil supply is projected to outpace demand—expanding at three times the...
Global Commodities: 2026 Outlook – Supply-driven crocodile cycle
05 Dec 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Natasha Kaneva and team share J.P. Morgan’s 2026 Global Commodities Outlook. Commodity prices have experienced repeated and highly synchronized cycl...
Global FX Outlook 2026: Bearish USD, Bullish Beta
28 Nov 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The Global FX Strategy team delves into the year-ahead currency outlook across macro, systematic and derivative dimensions. Â Speakers Meera Chandan...
Global FX Volatility Outlook 2026
28 Nov 2025
Contributed by Lukas
FX vol remains subdued into 2026 on resilient US growth and low central bank activity, but starting levels limit further downside. Policy events in 1Q...
Emerging Markets Outlook and Strategy for 2026
26 Nov 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Luis Oganes, Jonny Goulden and Jahangir Aziz discuss the economic and fixed income market themes in their Emerging Markets outlook for 2026. Â This p...
Global Rates 2026 Outlook
26 Nov 2025
Contributed by Lukas
J.P. Morgan’s global rates strategists discuss the 2026 outlook for developed markets, with discussions on rates, curves, swap spreads and volatilit...
Global Commodities: Metals headed for even greater heights
21 Nov 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Greg Shearer shares J.P. Morgan’s outlook for base and precious metals in 2026. We retain our structural, multi-year bullish outlook for gold, seein...
Global Rates: Analyzing Eurex and US futures roll
18 Nov 2025
Contributed by Lukas
In this podcast Khagendra Gupta and Ipek Ozil discuss the drivers of US and Eurex futures roll and their outlook for Dec25/Mar26 bond futures rollover...
Global FX: EUR/USD contemplation, GBP fiscal and JPY woes
14 Nov 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Arindam Sandilya, Meera Chandan and James Nelligan discuss the outlook for currencies with a focus on the European FX bloc. Â This podcast was record...
Global Commodities: Rising LNG supply underscores need for demand-side infrastructure
14 Nov 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Greg Shearer speaks with Otar Dgebuadze and Nina Fahy on the rising global LNG supply, slowdown of demand in key established markets and how the infra...
EM Fixed Income: A year of Latam elections
13 Nov 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Anezka Christovova, Ben Ramsey, Tania Escobedo, Alisa Meyers and Gisela Brant discuss election considerations for LatAm fixed income markets. This pod...
Agri Outlook for 2026/27: Volatility to return off compressed levels in 2026, as global agri availability continues to slide
12 Nov 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Tracey shares the Agri outlook for 2026/27, elaborating on her view: bearish short-term prospects for US soybeans but constructive outlooks for grains...
European Rates: BoE and Scandi central bank roundup
07 Nov 2025
Contributed by Lukas
In this podcast Francis Diamond and Khagendra Gupta discuss the recent Riksbank, Norges Bank and BoE meetings this week and implications for European ...
Global FX: Dollar oscillates; more fiscal clarity for GBP & CAD
07 Nov 2025
Contributed by Lukas
This week, our Global FX Strategists discuss various US factors influencing the dollar, the outlook for EUR, and the latest budget-related development...
EM Fixed Income: All the small things
06 Nov 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Jonny Goulden, Anezka Christovova and Ben Ramsey discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This po...
Global Rates: Trick or Treating with Central Banks
31 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Ipek Ozil and Khagendra Gupta discuss the recent and upcoming central bank developments as well as their impact on derivatives markets. Â Speakers:Â ...
Global FX: Hawkish Fed & dovish BoJ force a Yen forecast rethink
31 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
This week, our Global FX Strategists discuss whether the hawkish Fed surprise changes the outlook for the dollar, how we’re thinking about USD/JPY f...
Global Commodities: China’s LNG demand to peak in early 2030s
31 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
China’s gas market has seen robust demand growth, matched with domestic production growth and rising Russian pipeline flows, leading to our conclusi...
EM Fixed Income: Not spooked yet
30 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Jonny Goulden, Anezka Christovova and Ben Ramsey discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This po...
Asia Cross Asset Podcast: From Abenomics to ‘Sanae-nomics’ - What to expect for Japan policies, markets and the Yen
28 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Featured in this podcast are Ayako Fujita, Rie Nishihara, Junya Tanase and Arindam Sandilya discuss the outlook for Japanese macro and markets in the ...
At Any Rate: Of funding and refundings
24 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Rates strategists Jay Barry, Teresa Ho, and Phoebe White discuss recent developments in money markets and what it could mean for the Fed’s QT proces...
Global FX: Japan focus, US/China, PMIs, Fed/ECB
24 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Patrick Locke, Junya Tanase, Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and James Nelligan discuss the pivotal Japan macro week ahead of us, as well as the outlo...
Global Commodities: Oil glut paves way for stronger sanctions. If enforced
24 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Nearly 70% of Russian crude production and exports are now under sanctions, raising costs and slowing settlements even though only 5% of exports use U...
EM Fixed Income: Reviewing the global & previewing the upcoming idiosyncratic
23 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Jonny Goulden, Anezka Christovova and Gisela Brant discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This ...
Taking stock of the evolving value proposition of stablecoins
23 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
We discuss the key takeaways of our recently published report “Macro Corporate Spotlight: Taking stock of the evolving value proposition of stableco...
Global Commodities: Cocoa demand crunch not as bitter as feared
20 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
With Halloween around the corner, one of the peak seasons for chocolate and confectionery demand, cocoa prices have corrected sharply lower, down -20%...
US Rates - Does QT's end matter for funding and Treasury markets?
17 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
With QT likely to conclude by the end of the year, US Rates strategists Teresa Ho and Phoebe White discuss the implications for funding and Treasury m...
Global FX: Sailing the USD Bearish Ship in Murky Waters
17 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Against a backdrop of limited data visibility from the US government shutdown, our Global FX Strategists discuss 1) how global growth momentum indicat...
European Rates: market moves, 2026 Euro area issuance, SSAs, Scandi markets and European inflation
17 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss the recent European rate markets moves as well as a variety of different t...
Asia Cross Asset Podcast: Japan - The New LDP Leader: Implications for policy and markets
13 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Featured in this podcast are Sajjid Chinoy, Ayako Fujita, Junya Tanase, Takafumi Yamawaki, Rie Nishihara and Tim West. This episode was recorded on Oc...
Global FX and Commodities: The bullish case for gold, the bearish case for USD ex-yen and the shutdown showdown
10 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Meera Chandan, Natasha Kaneva, Anezka Christovova, Junya Tanase and Patrick Locke discuss the outlook for gold/ the dollar, emphasize the case for cyc...
EM Sovereign External Repayment Risks: Staying alive after 2025
08 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Ben Ramsey, Nishant Poojary and Jonny Goulden discuss the latest publication on EM Sovereign External Repayment Risks. This report builds on our previ...
Global FX: Shutdown limbo
03 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
This week, our Global FX Strategists, Arindam Sandilya and Patrick Locke break down the latest on 1) the US government shutdown's impact on the dollar...
Global Rates: Cross currency basis 4Q25 outlook
03 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
In this podcast Khagendra Gupta and Ipek Ozil discuss the drivers of €STR/SOFR cross currency bases.  Speakers: Ipek Ozil, Head of US Interest R...
Global Commodities: Agri trade returns to President Trumps Agenda
03 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Agri markets have returned to the US trade agenda, following President Trump’s commitment to discuss China’s absence of US soybean export orders a...
EM Fixed Income: Is better growth worse for EM?
01 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Jonny Goulden, Anezka Christovova and Ben Ramsey discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. Â This...
US Rates - So long EFFR, welcome TGCR
26 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
US Rates Strategists Teresa Ho and Ipek Ozil reflect on shifts to SOFR and EFFR this month as well as discuss the implications of TGCR as an alternati...
Global FX: Systematic signals, payrolls/ shutdown, risks to EUR/USD, AI-FX links
26 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Meera Chandan, Antonin Delair and Patrick Locke discuss the lower conviction and data dependent outlook for the dollar, as well as implications from s...
Global Commodities: Supply disruptions give copper prices breakout velocity
26 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
A larger than initially expected supply disruption from the world’s second largest copper mine, Freeport’s Grasberg in Indonesia, will significant...
Global Rates: Scandi Central Banks and noisy UK politics
26 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
In this podcast Francis Diamond and Khagendra Gupta discuss the Riksbank and Norges Bank meetings this month and implications for Scandinavian rate ma...
EM Fixed Income: Frontier Markets Focus
23 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Ayomide Mejabi, Nicolaie Alexandru, Katherine Marney and Gbolahan Taiwo discuss the mood at the 2025 Emerging and Frontier Markets Opportunities Confe...
Global Commodities: At Any Rate: Party like a semiquincentenarian
22 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
With the Fed cutting cycle commencing this week, consensus expectations of a straightforward series of quarter-point rate cuts conceals a broad spectr...
Global FX: Take-aways from FOMC and other DM central banks
19 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Following DM central bank Superweek, we discuss currency take-aways from the Fed, BoC, Norges Bank and BoE and preview FX implications from the SNB an...
Global Rates: Digging into a week of DM central bank decisions
19 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Rates strategists Jay Barry and Francis Diamond discuss the outcomes of this week's FOMC, BoE, and BoJ meetings, and the impact on DM rates markets. Â ...
Global Rates: Monthly Inflation Outlook
18 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
US Rates strategist Phoebe White and European Rates strategist Frida Infante discuss the August inflation data and their outlook for inflation markets...
EM Fixed Income: (EM) Credit where credit’s due
18 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Jonny Goulden, Ben Ramsey, YM Hong and Ayomide Mejabi discuss the implications of the Fed cut for EM, as well as the mood at the Emerging and Frontier...
US Rates: Yield curve bull flattens ahead of September FOMC
12 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
US Rates strategists Phoebe White and Ipek Ozil reflect on the drivers of this week’s bull flattening move and discuss views ahead of next week’s ...
Global FX: Previewing central bank event risk for FX
12 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
This week, our Global FX Strategists touch on the latest developments in CNY, and preview a loaded central bank week for currencies.  Speakers Mee...
Global Rates: ECB and BoE meetings, French spreads and Dutch indexation
12 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss the Euro market post the September ECB meeting, French spreads following t...
Global Commodities: Beware the Ides of September
12 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
We revisit the five conditions outlined in June that are necessary for crude oil prices to start reflecting the expected year-end weakness, and sugges...
Emerging Markets Outlook and Strategy for September 2025
11 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Jonny Goulden, Anezka Christovova and Nora Szentivanyi discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. Â ...
Global FX and Rates: Yield curve steepening, payrolls and FX hedge ratios
05 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Meera Chandan, Francis Diamond, Patrick Locke and Octavia Popescu discuss the drivers of yield curve steepening across DM markets, FX implications of ...
Global Commodities: Risk premium out, storage premium in
05 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Oil prices have been trading at a premium to fair value over the last two months with Brent’s outperformance driven not by geopolitical factors but ...
EM Fixed Income: Wake me up when September starts
04 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Jonny Goulden, Anezka Christovova and Ben Ramsey discuss the post-summer investment environment for EM and thoughts around tomorrow's payrolls scenari...
Global Rates: Scandi Rates Outlook
04 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
In this podcast Khagendra Gupta and Frida Infante discuss recent developments and our views in Sweden and Norway rates market.  This podcast was r...
Global Rates: Euro area and UK rate markets into the end of summer
29 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
In this podcast, Francis Diamond and Khagendra Gupta discuss their latest views on Euro area and UK rate market as markets start to move out of summer...
Global Economics, FX and Rates: French political scenarios for macro markets
28 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Meera Chandan, Aditya Chordia and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss the various possible outcomes for the French political landscape and discuss implicatio...
Global FX: The weak dollar view passes a flow test
22 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
This week, our FX Strategists break down the growth/inflation mix in the US and how that’s impacting the dollar, before providing an update on the s...
European Rates: Euro and UK inflation markets summer update
20 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
In this podcast Francis Diamond and Frida Infante discuss the outlook for Euro area and UK inflation over the coming months and their thoughts on HICP...
Global Rates, FX & Economics: Scandinavian macro, FX, and rates update
15 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
In this podcast Khagendra Gupta, Morten Lund, and James Nelligan discuss recent developments and our views in Sweden and Norway macro, FX, and rates m...
Global FX: Can USD weakness continue, Russia/Ukraine Scenarios and what’s next for GBP
15 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Meera Chandan, Anezka Christovova and James Nelligan discuss the outlook for the dollar and the next catalysts following the recent consolidation, var...
US Rates: Analysing Eurex and US futures roll
14 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
In this podcast Khagendra Gupta and Ipek Ozil discuss the drivers of US and Eurex futures roll and their outlook for Sep25/Dec25 bond futures rollover...
Global FX: Update on systematic FX signals and EM currencies
08 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
This week, our Global FX & EM strategists, Patrick Locke, Antonin Delair and Anezka Christovova discuss recent developments for the dollar, takeaw...
Global Rates: Dissecting the BoE’s hawkish cut, Scandi rate markets update
08 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
In this podcast Francis Diamond and Khagendra Gupta discuss the August BoE rate decision and provide and update on Scandinavian Rate market themes and...
EM Fixed Income: Stay local this summer
07 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Jonny Goulden and Anezka Christovova discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was re...
Global FX & Economics: BoE policy meeting preview
05 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
UK economist Allan Monks joins FX strategist James Nelligan to discuss the risks around the BoE policy meeting this week and the broader view on the U...
Global FX and Rates: FOMC, Payrolls, Refunding and Trade deals
01 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Meera Chandan and Jay Barry discuss the take-aways for FX and rates from key events this week, ranging from FOMC, Payrolls, Refunding and Trade deals....
EM Fixed Income: Assessing a big week for trade and macro data
01 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Jonny Goulden and Anezka Christovova discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. Â This podcast was...
Global Commodities: Tariff shockwaves churn crude and copper markets
01 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Trade negotiations and tariffs continue to roil commodity markets with the Trump administration warning that India and China will face penalties due t...
US Rates: Stablecoins – they’re only getting started
31 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Teresa Ho and PJ Vohra discuss the latest developments with stablecoins, how they could or could not influence Treasury demand, and the introduction o...
Global FX, Rates and Economics: Post-ECB and pre-trade deal thoughts
25 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Meera Chandan, Greg Fuzesi, Khagendra Gupta and Aditya Chordia discuss take-aways from the latest ECB meeting as well as expectations on the US-EU tar...
Global Commodities: Is volatility cheap in September?
25 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Brent and WTI volatility have reached their lowest levels since April, shifting from a bullish to a bearish put bias. As we look ahead to September, w...
EM Fixed Income: Summer catch-up as spreads catch-down
25 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Jonny Goulden and Ben Ramsey discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded o...
US Rates: Previewing the August refunding announcement
23 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
J.P. Morgan’s Jay Barry, Senior J.P. Morgan research and trading personnel will discuss their expectations for the refunding announcement as well as...
Global FX: Japan & US policy implications for FX
19 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan and Patrick Locke discuss the FX outlook in the context of the weekend’s Japan elections, US policy volatility and ...
EM Fixed Income: Emerging Markets Outlook and Strategy: Hold reduced EM exposure into the summer as market pricing and positioning are downplaying risks
18 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Luis Oganes, Jonny Goulden and Jahangir Aziz discuss the outlook for Emerging Markets. Â Speakers Luis Oganes - Head of Global Macro Research Jonny G...
Global Commodities: Cocoa market crunch
18 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
After historic price gains across the cocoa market through 2024, cocoa markets are leading the losses across agri markets through 2025 YTD. The hangov...
Global Rates: European rates summer themes – seasonality, swap spreads, SSAs and gilts
11 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta broadly discuss some summer themes for European rate markets focusing on seasonali...
Global FX: Keeping the bearish USD view
11 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya, Patrick Locke and James Nelligan discuss why the dollar still deserves to weaken over the medium-term, recent CNY fix...
Global Commodities: 50% copper tariffs coming soon; now comes the copper hangover
11 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The Trump administration announced plans this week to impose a 50% tariff on US copper imports beginning August 1st. While the 50% level of copper t...
Asia Cross Asset: Liberation Day 2.0 and Asia
10 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Featured in this podcast are Sajjid, Rajiv and Arindam discuss the outlook for Asia macro and rates/FX/equity markets in the aftermath of the latest U...
Global Commodities: Global upstream Oil & Gas capital spending faces first contraction since 2020
03 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Global upstream oil and gas spending is expected to hit $543 billion this year, a 1.1% decrease from 2024, with reduced capital allocation across all ...
Global FX: Deep-dive into global FX hedge ratios
03 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
This week, our global FX strategists, Meera Chandan, Ben Jarman, Patrick Locke, Octavia Popescu and James Nelligan take a look at FX hedge ratios acro...
Global FX Derivatives: Thin Cushion. A Slippery Slope from Calm to Uncertainty
30 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
In this episode of At Any Rate Arindam Sandilya, Juan Duran-Vara and Ladislav Jankovic discuss FX Derivatives themes of interest heading into 2H25. We...
Global Rates: European rates markets roundup: German fiscal, NATO meeting, carry themes, de-dollarisation flows and UK rates
27 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Elisabetta Ferrara discuss recent German fiscal and NATO events this week as well as views on carr...
Global FX: Mid-Year Outlook - Tell me something new
27 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The DM and EM FX strategy team discuss the new themes for currencies heading into 2H25.  Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandi...
Global Commodities: Big crops are unlikely to build world stocks, agri outlook into 2H25
27 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Looking at the latest outlook for the agri markets and where the risks lie ahead of upcoming formative USDA acreage and stocks reports. As we turn to ...
US Rates: DM swap spread outlook
27 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
In this podcast Ipek Ozil and Khagendra Gupta discuss the main drivers of DM swap spreads with focus on US and German swap spreads. Â Speakers: Â Ip...
Oil Prices and Asia - Macro and Market Implications?
26 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Featured in this podcast are Sajjid Chinoy, Natasha Kaneva, Sean Kelly and Mixo Das. This podcast was recorded on Jun 25, 2025. This communication is ...
Global Rates: European rates Scandi and UK central bank round up
20 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
In this podcast, Francis Diamond, Khagendra Gupta and Frida Infante discuss the Norges Bank, Riskbank and BoE meetings this week and implications for ...
Global FX and Economics: A look back to monetary policy and a look ahead to fiscal
20 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Meera Chandan, Greg Fuzesi, James Nelligan, Octavia Popescu and Patrick Locke discuss the FX implications of a wide range of topics - the upcoming Ger...
Global Commodities: The unintended consequences of destabilizing Iran
20 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Regime changes in oil-producing countries—whether through leadership transitions, coups, revolutions, or major political shifts—can profoundly aff...
EM Fixed Income: Weighing the impacts of Middle East escalation
20 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorde...
Global Rates: Monthly Inflation Outlook
18 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Rates strategists Francis Diamond and Phoebe White discuss their latest views on global inflation markets. Breakevens in DM inflation markets have bee...
US Rates: US rates market 2H25 outlook
16 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
J.P. Morgan’s Jay Barry, Teresa Ho, Ipek Ozil, and Phoebe White discuss the outlook for the US rates market in the second half of 2025, discussing T...
Global FX: Range breaks in the offing for the dollar
13 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan and Patrick discuss the outlook for currencies amid tariff and geopolitical tensions and ahead of a heavy calendar of...
Global Rates: European rates market 2H25 outlook – range trade and selectively seeking carry
13 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
In this podcast Francis Diamond and Khagendra Gupta broadly outline their thoughts on Euro area and UK rates markets over the second half of this year...
Global Commodities: Aluminum’s premium paralysis
13 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Speakers: Â Greg Shearer, Head of Base & Precious Metals Research This podcast was recorded on June 13, 2025. The surprise increase in US aluminu...