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Chapter 1: What is the current state of the Blue Jays as of May 2026?
Welcome to At The Letters for May 12th, 2026. Ben Nicholson-Smith here with you, joined by Shai Davidi. Shai, I sat alongside you for the Blue Jays Angels series at Rogers Center in the press box. We've been talking a lot of baseball in the last few days, but we're about to do a little bit more of that. So thanks for joining and hope you're doing well this morning.
Yeah, definitely. A pleasure as always. And always fun when we can transfer some of those press box conversations onto ATL.
Exactly. That is the vision here. We are going to get into the Jays' fifth starter spot. I mean, that is really one of the big questions around this team. Of course, we'll touch on the Addison Barger situation as well. Might not go... into such depth there just because we're recording this on the morning of Monday, May 11th, and we'll probably learn more by the afternoon.
And we don't want to bore everyone with thoughts on a topic that they're better versed in than we are right now. But we will take stock of the Jays. There are 40 games in as we record this, discuss some of the bigger questions surrounding this team, whether it's Vlad Jr. 's power, the overall health of the team. So we definitely have lots to get to.
But man, shy, like the the really fascinating thing to come out of Sunday's game was how the contrast developed between Eric Lauer and his struggles and Spencer Miles and his three highly effective innings. So what did you make of that contrast?
Yeah, definitely a compelling story from Sunday. And I think your caveat about things being dated is a really valid one because I feel like this has got the potential to be a pretty big news week from the team in multiple directions. And this storyline is certainly one of them. But...
let's just take a step back and just look at spencer miles in a vacuum for a second because you've got this really intriguing rule 5 pick great stuff because of health issues has made just 15 appearances in pro ball if you're including arizona fall league and What are you going to do with this asset? And he's got the potential to have a starter's mix.
He could potentially repeat his delivery enough and turn over a lineup. But the dude just hasn't pitched. And this is such a unique Rule 5 case and a really fascinating roll of the dice. And so the Blue Jays have gotten him down. Through to early May thus far on the big league roster, he's found a way to contribute. He's had some pretty important outings. He's had some nice moments.
And then in he comes on Sunday as the opener against what the Angels do to stack a lineup of righties. And just mows through them for the most part. You know, he did have the leadoff double that he worked around and got out of, but it's three innings without a run allowed.
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Chapter 2: What challenges are the Blue Jays facing with their fifth starter spot?
It's in a lot of ways exactly what the Blue Jays had hoped for, best case scenario. And then they use another bridge reliever in Tommy Nance to get to...
eric lauer eric lauer starts with the lefty you know in a pocket that should be good for him and by the time his first inning of work is over a one nothing lead has turned into a 4-1 deficit and the blue jays end up in a loss and so eric lauer has been for weeks now trying to work through some velocity issues trying to work through some delivery issues it hasn't gone well for him obviously uh and
the contrast, as you mentioned, is just there. And if we zoom out a second and apologies for this being such a long answer, but you also have to think about the wider context for this fifth starter spot, right? So a week and change ago, we were talking about Jose Barrios' imminent return into this spot. On Tuesday, he's going to visit Dr. Keith Meister for a follow-up on his elbow.
And after experiencing two outings with down velocity and some soreness in the elbow and an MRI that showed some changes around the injury, which doesn't sound very good. Shane Bieber continues his very deliberate and measured buildup and isn't on the horizon. Max Scherzer just got a cortisone shot in his right forearm. And that's going to take some time. So there isn't an imminent answer coming.
And so you have the two contrasts between Miles and Lauer within that framework. And all of a sudden, it's an interesting possibility that the Blue Jays have to explore.
Right, and I think if any one of Cody Ponce or Max Scherzer or Jose Barrios is healthy, or if Lauer is performing, if any one of those four dudes is healthy and performing, then we're not even having this discussion. It would be not even remotely close to anybody's mind because... Spencer Miles' career high in innings is 21, as in the 21 innings that he's pitched so far this year.
He has not pitched much in professional baseball. And the 43 pitches that he threw a few weeks back, that's his season high in pitches. This is not someone who's been stretched out to even 70 pitches. In spring training, he was a reliever. He was not a starting pitcher in spring training. So this would be a huge leap to make
if the Blue Jays were to explore the possibility of stretching him out a little bit further, and yet, like, you know, we're not scouts shy, but you look at Eric Lauer's VLOG,
and it's 90 to 91 and he's allowing a ton of hard contact including three home runs spencer miles sitting 97 and not allowing a lot of hard contact so common sense says spencer miles inning per inning right now in 2026 just is the better pitcher and it's a very reasonable thing in my opinion to at least consider the possibility of what it would look like to stretch him out
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Chapter 3: How are Spencer Miles and Eric Lauer impacting the Blue Jays' pitching strategy?
And by the time that Cody Ponce ends up suffering that knee injury on that awkward step off the mound chasing a little dribbler, The Blue Jays are in a position where they've had to scramble in so many ways. And so that really hasn't stopped. And so because of that, maybe you have to consider some things, at least for a stretch, until you have some clarity on Barrios.
Or maybe there's a timeline on Scherzer. Or maybe there's a firmer timeline on Shane Bieber. Something along those lines. Could you get creative with... some combination of a Myles Lauer piggyback for a month, say, until maybe Bieber's healthy or Scherzer's healthy? Or do you do something with Yariel Rodriguez, who's traveling to join the team in Toronto on Monday?
There are a number of ways the Blue Jays could look at this. Ultimately, it comes down to them having to figure something out. And, you know, the one piece, again, we're talking on Monday morning here, we don't know exactly what's going to happen with Yariel Rodriguez. But Eric Lauer had an ice pack around his knee after the outing yesterday when he spoke to us.
And that could just be regular recovery or maybe it's something. And so I think there's just a lot of moving pieces right now. And the Blue Jays are going to have to get creative in some way, shape or form.
So before we get back to Miles, just as an aside for anyone wondering about the Shane Bieber timeline, like if I were to say to you, you can lock it in right now. You have to represent the Toronto Blue Jays in this scenario. And you can lock it in right now that Shane Bieber is going to be back July 1st, healthy, fully ready to go, fully ramped up. Do you take that or do you roll the dice?
I would take that. You're talking about half a season at this point? Yeah. That would be great. Like a healthy Shane Bieber, no questions, as opposed to the other option be trying to hope that he can come back sooner and get a few more starts out of him. Is that the alternative you're proposing?
Exactly. I mean, the alternative is you roll the dice. You don't know. And to me, I would take July 1st if I was in the Blue Jays' position. At this point, he's set to face hitters this week. That gets him middle of May. Then you have maybe another few live BPs or a couple of sim games. Then you start a rehab. OK, there's your 30-day window.
So if he starts a rehab end of May, then that gives you until the end of June to complete that rehab. And lo and behold, you start to look at a July 1st activation. Mind you, that's if everything goes well.
Right. And I think that's like you're getting close to July 1 one way or the other. And I think what would be great for the Blue Jays right now is just some certainty. Like, what are you trying to cover? Because So it's a lot easier to say, say you're going to try to stretch miles out a little bit, right?
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Chapter 4: What adjustments are the Blue Jays making with their pitching staff?
Trey Savage has recorded an out in the fifth inning one time so far this year, and that's fine. He's been effective. That's working, and they can be deliberate with him. I think that that goes to show that if they were to stretch out miles, you're not expecting six innings out of them.
Chapter 5: How is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s performance affecting the Blue Jays' offense?
You're expecting four, five, maybe. you know, three was obviously great on Sunday, but gradually over time, if they were to go ahead with this experiment, then I think you're talking about someone who's asked to go 75 pitches at a maximum, four to five innings if things go really well. Does that align with how you see things?
It does, but I would also say this, and I understand that the Blue Jays have already been doing this or have had to do this. So, you know, why not just it? Maybe it doesn't matter. But if you already have Trey Savage, who isn't a lock to give you five plus, at least right now, while he's in the initial stages of the buildup.
Can you afford to have another rotation spot that's in that similar vein right now? I mean, no, but they don't have a choice. Right. But I guess, in a sense, you're being forced to pick between a handful of unsustainable options, right? And so it feels like whatever the Blue Jays are doing right now, it'll have to be sort of temporary. And look, you're anticipating that
Trey Savage, it's been, and you know, full credit to him. He's had a really strange buildup to this. He hasn't had a lot of, a lot of innings. He hasn't had a sort of a normal base built up during spring training and already he's recovering from the shoulder issue. and a massive spike in workload from a year ago.
So, you know, kudos to him for, for how he's performing under these circumstances, but until he's giving you a hundred pitches regularly, which is something that, you know, he didn't do last year either, uh, outside of the post season, just came in and had all these great outings. Uh,
This isn't a normal setup and that is to some degree what starting pitching is in this era of baseball where you just make up some stuff and figure out how to cover innings and you move pieces around and that's okay. But the Blue Jays are also a team that was built around to have a lot of stability on a foundation of core innings out of your starters.
And that's played, obviously, from one half of the rotation, but not from the entirety of the rotation thus far. And so that's been a challenge. Now, the Blue Jays aren't... where they are right now because of their starters. It's because they haven't gotten consistent enough offense to relieve some of the pressure on them in the bullpen.
But I think what you worry about in the latter half of the season is how much does the strain on the pitching staff right now potentially catch up down the road and you're needing to survive in the moment, no doubt, but there's also the bigger picture at play, and there's a lot of push and pull between those two forces.
Yeah, for sure. I mean, you run the risk of overdoing it with certain relievers, asking too much even of Dylan Cease and Kevin Gosman during this period of time. But I think especially now that they start 18 and 22, you've got to win the games in front of you. You've got to find a way to just win and then figure it out later. And that might mean trading prospects for more pitching.
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Chapter 6: What factors are contributing to the Blue Jays' offensive struggles?
Another guy who really had to hit the ground running quickly, one outing in the minor leagues after working out on his own throughout the spring before jumping into a big league rotation and getting out. And, you know, at least using baseball reference war, he's almost at a win of value thus far for the Blue Jays, which is a pretty incredible contribution. So the one...
piece to consider with Corbin is that he like like you Savage like this this on this open-ended fifth spot there isn't a lot of length there it's most likely going to be five innings six innings in on a good day and that piece means there's a lot of innings left over for the bullpen and And so, yeah, you're right that if they're in it, the Blue Jays will obviously be adding pitching.
I mean, that's what they've done at every trade deadline. That is their pattern. You can never have enough of it. You can always find a way to upgrade your pitching. But they have to get there, the initial point, and they can't run the pitches that they do have into the ground in the process. Because again, like you so correctly stated, there is a hangover from the workload in 2025. Right.
And it's a welcome one. Like, this is a good place to be. You know, big, big picture. You'd rather go to the World Series and have a bit of a hangover and have to figure it out.
And the Blue Jays spent a lot of time in the offseason thinking about how to mitigate that, not just during spring training, but during the season as well. I do think that's why we saw them build out what we what we looked at back then as a surplus of pitching. But even still, like this is such a cliche, but time and again, you just never have enough pitching.
And I think that is that is the lesson that's shown through thus far. And I really think this is what the the offense is obviously a prime issue for this team. But in terms of the number one concern for for the front office, I do think it's how to cover the pitching over the entire year and make sure that you're getting everybody wire to wire.
So I want to get to the offense in a second here. But one last thing on Miles, because if we're talking about. the possibility of stretching him out and making him into something more akin to a starting pitcher than a two-winning opener, then you start to think about, okay, what do starting pitchers need? And you start to look at that checklist.
And I think it's worth considering for a moment as we complete this discussion on Miles. You think about, okay, does he have stuff? Yep, he has stuff. Does he have a mix of pitches that he can use so he can get lefties and righties out, keep hitters off balance? Yep. They like that.
They think his delivery is simple enough to stay over the plate, to have the command that's required, and certainly the results back that up where he's not walking a million hitters. So that's a good thing. You start to see, okay, there are actually some building blocks for a starting pitcher. He's a big dude, potentially someone who's a strong guy.
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Chapter 7: What insights did David Singh provide about the Blue Jays' identity?
It's not like he just shut down the Yankees or something like that. But he's shown well in big moments. And I think that's why there's a part of you that needs to think, okay, well, what's also good for him longer term, right? Is he a potential starter for you in 2027? Is he something else? And so...
yes you have to think about the moment you have to think about the future you have to be fair to the kid you can't get you can't be overly swayed by a small sample size but again like all these things are just there's an urgency right now for something and i think that's part of what makes all of this so fascinating well it goes back to what you said
None of these solutions are ideal, right? The ideal is Cody Ponce is healthy and burritos is healthy and like they actually have the guys that they plan to have. And so now they're choosing from options that aren't ideal. And like you, I'm going to be super fascinated to see which path they choose. Because they have to be crafty in no matter which direction they go.
Now, I do want to also pick your brain on Vlad Guerrero Jr. Because if we're talking about reasons that the Blue Jays haven't gotten to where they would like to be... Look, Vlad Jr. has been a productive hitter. There's no question about that. He's an above average hitter. But... A quarter of the way through the season, he's on pace for eight home runs.
And that's not what anyone would expect from a hitter with his ability, his power, his ability to stay on the field. It's pretty surprising. So what do you make of where Vlad Jr. is at as we flip the page into that second chunk of the season here?
so it's pretty amazing right like go back to april 29th against the red sox he has a three for three day he pushes his batting average up to 358 and everything looks right and then he didn't have a great series in minnesota uh which i covered and then didn't have a great series in tampa bay where you were And all of a sudden he comes back and it's just what's going on.
And we looked at each other a few times over the weekend and thought this does not look like Vlad at all during some of his played appearances there. And so it's it's kind of remarkable how quickly things have turned on him. And this happens and it's natural, but
It also happened within the context of him trying to work through a few adjustments to get a bit more loft, to get to some of that damage.
that he's been seeking and in that process the the heart contact has has dissipated and some of the approach seems to have waned so this he's he's in a he's in a very very uh weird spot right now where he was going good and he looked like he was on the verge of of you know, accelerating or shifting into an even higher gear. And somehow in that process, he's managed to downshift.
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Chapter 8: What are the prospects for the Rays in the 2026 season?
Very few teams are like the Mariners or the Dodgers or the Yankees and have that kind of enviable starting pitching depth. The Jays probably thought they were going to be one of those teams. Hasn't worked out that way. But as of now, I got to put it at an eight.
You know what's funny? One thing that, and we'll let the listeners in on this, but one conversation that you and I have had a lot over the years is just how do you make sure that you're not becoming a prisoner of the moment? And how are you looking at it long-term? Are we overweighing this right now in the here and now? Are we underweighing this?
How is our assessment right now if you're trying to be as dispassionate as you can be, which is obviously how baseball executives tend to think as well. And as much as we try to do that, there are times where we do become prisoners of the moment. But I just think that... if you look right now, there's so many things that can swing wildly for, for this team.
And like you said, you know, Vlad, Vlad can get hot super fast. And if Vlad's hot and Okamoto is just good, like this offense is okay. And then if Springer finds it a little bit, all of a sudden, uh, to borrow a phrase from, uh, our pal can Barker, you're cooking with gravy, right? Uh, like, like the, the whole scene looks a lot different. Uh, But again, that could drag on too.
And the Jays had a really tough series from an offensive standpoint against the Rays last week at the Trop. Now they've got them again. It's not going to be a ton of runs. There aren't going to be a ton of runs out there for them to score. So the pitching's got to be good. This is a tough series.
This is the type of series where the Jays could really springboard themselves forward or just create a bigger hole for themselves very easily.
Yeah. Well, that's why we watch. We'll be dialed in. Shai, thanks so much for making the time.
No problem. Pleasure as always.
Awesome. All right. Well, when we come back, we will catch up with another Sportsnet baseball writer, David Singh, when we return on At The Letters. All right, we are back on At The Letters, which is produced by Christian Ryan. Thanks to Christian for producing this episode of the podcast and most of our episodes throughout the season as we try to reach you as often as possible.
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