Bankless
ROLLUP: Iran Ceasefire Rally | Anthropic’s “Mythos” Model | Q-Day Divide | Stablecoin Yield Debate
10 Apr 2026
Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Bankless Nation, welcome to the Friday Weekly Roll-Up.
Chapter 2: What are the implications of the Iran ceasefire on global markets?
It's the second week of April. Ryan Todd Adams is out on vacation, so we're tapping in Hasib to cover for him. Hasib, welcome back to the show. Always a pleasure to have you.
Thanks for having me, man.
Got some juicy topics that I want you to get your perspective on, Hasib. We got a shaky ceasefire in Iran, giving the markets a relief rally. Negotiations start Friday. That's tomorrow for us, but today for the listeners. And there's a lot of daylight between the two sides coming to negotiate. So we're going to see what happens there.
Meanwhile, we're going to talk about as well the anthropic release of the world's most powerful model, A model so powerful that they're keeping it behind closed doors and only select companies get private access to it to harden their security before the rest of the world gets it. Q Day is dividing the crypto industry while some are preparing, others are saying don't look up.
And the White House weighs in on the stablecoin debate. Which side did they choose?
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Chapter 3: How does Anthropic's Mythos model threaten crypto security?
Before we get in, Haseeb, just kind of vibe check. How are we feeling about crypto? How are we feeling about the markets? What's top of mind for you lately?
I'm feeling pretty good. It feels like the market is kind of getting its sea legs. I think that the depth of bearishness that we saw like in the first couple months of the year feels like it's stabilizing a little bit. People are kind of saying, okay, we're probably going to be okay. We're going to be here for a while. There's a lot of work to do as an industry.
But it feels like people are more forward-looking now. Like talking about things like quantum, I feel like, okay, how do we solve this problem as opposed to, oh my God, the sky is falling. I think it's a good development.
Yeah, the prices, the Bitcoin price, Ether price, they've been just ranging for the past something like 60 or 70 days. And I agree that that's given us some foundation to look forward on. Whether or not that means we chop down or chop up one or the other, I don't know. But at least we are, as an industry... Talking about bigger and better things.
Let's get into the macro markets that are the macro events that are causing all of the markets just to have some level of uncertainty. This tweet that kind of just rocketed around the world.
Donald Trump on Truth Social saying a whole civilization will die tonight commanded everyone's attention as Donald Trump issued Iran a 48 hour ultimatum that they must open the straight and and capitulate or else. A whole civilization will die tonight. Oil prices surged on this tweet. Futures plummeted.
But then less than two hours before the deadline, the United States and Iran reached a ceasefire, a two-week ceasefire to come to an agreement. So then there is not an agreement, but there is a two-week ceasefire to come to an agreement. Trump tweeted out, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks.
We received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and I believe it is a workable basis. on which to negotiate. On this news, oil prices crashed by like 23% in eight hours. The S&P 500 surged to 3.5% off of its all-time high.
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Chapter 4: What is the significance of 'Q-Day' in the crypto landscape?
Bitcoin hit 72K. Ether almost hit 2,300K. Things have come down a little bit since then, but still pretty optimistic pricing in the market after this. There is some shakiness. However, the Strait of Hormuz first was being told it was open Later, we realize that the IRGC, Iran, is demanding payment, roughly two to three million dollars per transit payable in Bitcoin.
And then after this ceasefire, Iran immediately sent a volley of rockets into Israel. Israel then later attacked Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. Because of this, Iran is saying that they are threatening to end the ceasefire.
Chapter 5: How is Bitcoin being used in Iran's global trade?
and close this rate of Hormuz. And this is why everyone kind of just feels shaky about the state of things. Yet, nonetheless, markets are somewhat optimistic. Oil is trading up from their lows, up from 5% from the ceasefire bottom, but still well below $100. 10-year yields are still trending down in XPX.
Chapter 6: What does the White House report say about stablecoin yields?
The S&P 500 is trading higher for the second day in a row. Hasib, just give me your broad takes about the current state of these events and kind of like where you think this is going, if you have any sort of insider direction here.
Chapter 7: How is the market reacting to the stablecoin yield debate?
Yeah. I mean, I'm certainly not anywhere near an insider on the Iran war. Hard to be an insider on the Iran war. I know. I know. Shaky is probably the best way to describe it is it seems like there's so much posturing from both sides that it's very hard to tell what the reality is and what the real contingencies.
I mean, at this point, ironically, like we know a lot more about so many leaks coming from within the Trump admin. We know surprisingly little about what's going on within Iran. There seems to be just a lot of confusion, a lot of different messages being received from different places. There's constantly contradictions from within the Iran camp about what they want, who's saying what.
There's all these reports about it's very difficult to negotiate with Iran because there isn't a clear governmental structure yet, or at least it's not apparent. That may become clearer now that there is a ceasefire. And ostensibly, you know, it's been now over 24 hours that we've had no missiles fired at anywhere in the region.
And, you know, the Strait of Hormuz is not open in the way that it was supposed to be according to the ceasefire. It was supposed to be free and available to anybody. It looks like they're charging tolls in the millions of dollars for ships to go through the Strait of Hormuz, which is still a significant impairment to oil prices if that continues. But things have stabilized.
And it seems like it's in everyone's interest for things to stabilize. But the markets are not fully buying it. And you see it in the oil prices as well. Oil prices have rebounded quite a bit from seeing that Iran is not really playing ball. And they seem to be insistent on controlling the Strait of Hormuz as a way of, quote unquote, getting recompense for the war.
And if they feel entitled to this... there may be more rockiness going forward. So I'm not super hopeful that the situation is going to go back to normal. I think that's kind of dead. That there'll be no more war or no more of a hot war? Plausible. Not guaranteed, but plausible.
Yeah, I think the unintended side effect, Trump comes in and has its military objectives. And so much of this war is like a narrative war. There's the actual kinetic war on the ground, but really so much of this is a war for narrative, a war for hearts and minds. If people tolerate the war, then Trump can continue. If too many people don't tolerate the war, then Trump has to reel it back.
And a lot of this has kind of boiled down to like, okay, so the United States maybe got its military objectives, But now the very asymmetric control over the Strait of Hormuz is something that I'm guessing no one really accounted for going into this. This is just the chaos of war. And now the Strait of Hormuz is Iran's last line of defense.
Like it cannot give that up because it is the one Achilles heel that it has the rest of the world by. And giving up the Strait of Hormuz is giving up everything for Iran. And it doesn't feel like that is a tenable equilibrium for the rest of the world. But also giving up the Strait of Hormuz is also unintended for Iran.
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Chapter 8: What are the vulnerabilities posed by AI in smart contracts?
So it kind of seems like this whole conflict is ending up between Iraq and a hard place. And as you said, I think the markets are just kind of uncertain, shaky as to how this whole thing plays out.
It's pretty clear Trump did not really accomplish his military goals. His military goals have certainly shifted or they've not been well articulated in the first place. But originally, the military goal was nuclear disarmament of Iran. That has not happened. That's not even been proclaimed to happen.
That's one of the points in the negotiation is whether they're going to be able to take this enriched uranium out of Iran. Right. This might be possible. Iran supposedly has signaled openness to this as a negotiating point.
But they've been so squirrelly up till now with previous agreements of this kind that it kind of beggars belief that it's going to be perceived domestically as a win for Trump by the end of this. For the most part, it seems like now Trump's quote unquote military goal has been to exit while saving face. That seems like the primary goal for Trump over the last two to three weeks.
And he's achieved that for now. But if we see more escalation in Iran or Iran kind of playing more aggressively against the ceasefire, it's very possible that that perception for Trump could really unravel pretty quickly.
And that feels aligned with what I think we know about Trump's personality. He's not a long-term guy. He is in and out. He's not into the trade war with China, the multiple trade wars with China and the first Trump and also second Trump. Those were six-week affairs. And then we moved on. If we can extrapolate from that, Iran will be a six-week affair
then there's a new equilibrium on the other side of it and we just move on. But like any issue that Trump has never seems to last longer than a quarter, even a quarter seems long.
I agree with you generally. That said, Iran has been a preoccupation of his for a long time. That's true. And this goes back decades, his feelings about Iran as basically a rogue state in the Middle East. And that's probably going to become more and more important and antagonistic now that they feel entitled over the straight. Mm-hmm.
You know, there was a proposal from them that like, okay, maybe they would share some of the revenue from the Strait with Oman, which is the, you know, flanks the other side of the Strait of Hormuz.
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