Episode 5019: Does New Polling Reveal Christ Is Alive In The US

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Bannon`s War Room 50 min 9 speakers 8 chapters transcribed

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Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.

What recent economic data is discussed in this episode?

Mark Tepper 0:00

We are looking right now at the GDP number at 4.3% is the actual number versus an estimate of 3.3%. Mark Tepper, your reaction.

Louis Navalier 0:08

So last week we talked about inflation coming in lower than expected. Now economic growth is one full percentage point faster than expected. It was supposed to come in at 3.3, came in at 4.3. This is a direct result of everything President Trump has put in place. Net exports are on the rise because of Trump's tariff policy, which is leveling the trade playing field. A.I. 's increasing productivity. Businesses are investing in spending and the consumer remains strong. And just think next, I think, well, next quarter, they'll they'll end up getting an extra hundred and fifty billion dollars in refund checks that they can then deploy and spend as well. So great number.

Mark Tepper 0:49

Great number, 4.3%. And I've got to say, when I see a GDP of 4.3%, I have to believe 5% is not far away. And that, of course, is what Louis Navalier told us last week, Mark, that we're going to see a 5% GDP handle in the first half of the year.

How do Trump's policies impact current economic growth?

Louis Navalier 1:06

He looks like Nostradamus right now. I mean, he almost predicted that on the head. Obviously, 5% is well within our reach, especially given the consumer tailwinds I just mentioned.

Unknown 1:18

Right. Well, it's really a fantastic number and it's a great Christmas present for the American people. And, you know, I would say that the headline for me is two things that I think the big macro trends that we're seeing in these numbers are, first of all, that President Trump's trade agenda is working. And so we got about, you know, one and a half percent of the growth on four point three because we reduced the trade deficit. And then the other thing that I think, which is a big macro thing that we're seeing, is that the artificial intelligence productivity boom is really clearly in the data. And I guess you and I are old enough to remember back in the 90s when the computer came in, that all of a sudden you had like 4% quarters all the time.

Unknown 2:00

one after the other, and it kept surprising people because they thought, oh, you know, computers everywhere, but in the productivity data, but we're seeing it in the data and we're seeing the same kind of regular surprises for market participants. And so we went back and we looked at every Bloomberg forecast for the main numbers since September and found that on average, we outperformed the forecast 94% of the time. So if 94% of Wall Street economists are getting the macro trends wrong, they need to start to think about, hey, you know, maybe Trump's policies are actually way better than we thought. And maybe the fake news that says all these terrible things about Trump policies should reconsider and, you know, grab their pencil and redo their economics.

Rick Santelli 2:40

Let's get the bond report. Rick Santelli has more on how the markets are reacting to all of these cross currents.

What role does artificial intelligence play in productivity?

Rick Santelli 2:45

Rick, what can you tell us?

Stephen K. Bannon 2:47

Well, you know, I like the way the charts tell a picture. If you look at twos and tens when the number was released, a couple things should jump out at you. The twos definitely seem to be more aggressive in holding the upside. I don't think that's for any big reasons to explain the Fed or acknowledge percentages and probabilities. I think it's purely the next chart, which is 10 years bucking up against that 419 to 420 resistance. That chart goes back nearly two weeks. And stopping it there makes perfect sense. And if you open the chart up, should we settle above 419, and it doesn't look like we will, that'd be a 3 and 1 half month high yield close. To me, a bit of the surprise today was the dollar index.

Stephen K. Bannon 3:30

When the data was released at 830, it definitely turned up. It had been moving down. But it really doesn't alter the general picture. ANY CLOSE TODAY BELOW 98.14 IS A TWO AND A HALF MONTH LOW. AND TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTION MORE DIRECTLY, KELLY, I PERSONALLY STILL DON'T SEE ANY PATH TO GET TO 2%. SO MANY COULD DISINFLATION, ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT WERE POTENTIAL PICKS FOR FED CHAIRS, BUT ULTIMATELY just like anything else in our economy, when the economy gets good, competition for capital gets hot.