Chapter 1: What is Pete Alonso's current free agent status?
is Pete Alonso. He's a guy who, as Scott Boris will crow about, no longer has the qualifying offer. It's just like Scott Boris loves when guys lose the qualifying offer, right? So Pete Alonso is heading in the market. He's really an interesting one because – Okay, you could just pigeonhole him as this guy, big slugging corner infielder. What's that worth?
But he's also a guy that plays 162, which I think is a dramatically underrated stat. And good clubhouse guy, so maybe for teams looking for good clubhouse guys, can hit home runs, which if we're going off the postseason, that's really, really important to hit home runs.
So for your perspective, and I know that you have it on in your column, sort of a chart of what you projected Pete Alonzo over the years, which is sort of all over the place.
Chapter 2: How does losing a qualifying offer affect Pete Alonso's market?
So how do you look at him right now?
I'm really interested in seeing how it plays out for him this winter because, you know, the problems he had last year, he's coming off of kind of consecutive down seasons for him in 23 and 24. He had the qualifying offer attached.
It wasn't a robust first base market, but there were some other kind of mid-level options that teams decided to go for, like Christian Walker, Nathaniel Lowe was traded to Washington, those kinds of moves.
And this year you've got a little bit more of a robust first base market because not only do you have Naylor, but you've got Murakami and Okamoto coming over from NPB who could potentially be first base options. But you also have Alonzo coming off of a better season, a better all around season where he showed that, you know,
Even if he's only hitting 38 home runs instead of 45, there's still value in his bat. And coming off, we've seen, even if his defensive metrics are down, he had a more difficult defensive season than he's ever had before. And his future, if he signs a five-year deal, it's to be a DH at some point in that deal. We're also looking at a National League MVP finalist field. Shohei Otani, DH.
Kyle Schwarber, DH. Juan Soto, not a great defensive outfielder. Offense is still the most important thing that a position player can do and produce. And so in that sense, like Alonso, I ended up kind of in the same spot I did last year, five years and 140 million. Because he's a year older, but coming off of a better season.
And it's tough to figure out exactly what team is going to go after him at that level. So, you know, it could be a team that decides like, hey, you know, we're kind of settled at first base, but maybe we can make things work. You know, a team that came close to him last year was Toronto. And, you know, the Mets still make the most sense to me because they don't have a first baseman.
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Chapter 3: What are Pete Alonso's strengths as a player?
They don't have a DH without Alonzo. They have holes at both spots and not many contending teams do. But I'm definitely interested in seeing who else gets into that bidding and maybe gets Alonzo to where he wants to be this time around.
Do you feel when you're doing these projections, when you get a chance to see a guy as much as you saw Alonzo, Diaz, these guys, does that sway you at all? I know that's sort of a big... big-picture question. Maybe it's not an easy answer. You like to say, well, no, the numbers are the numbers. It is what it is.
But still, sometimes you look at the numbers and we have friends in the business like, ah, man, that guy stinks. No, that guy is awesome. Look at the intangibles. Seeing a guy like Alonzo, like I said, like Diaz, does that sway? Do you think that subliminally – oh, that's terrible – subtly changes or sways you at all?
I think it helps because you get a sense of when do these guys' hits come? Is he coming up with hits in key spots? Are a lot of those home runs, ninth inning home runs off of position players or off of the last guy in a bullpen in a blowout? You get a sense of that.
Honestly, it probably helps me most defensively because there are times where you think a guy reputationally seems like a good defender and then you look at his numbers and you're like, huh. They're not that good this year. Like, what happened to them? And if you're seeing him, you know, 120 times a year rather than...
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Chapter 4: How does Pete Alonso's performance compare to other first basemen?
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Bix, you have a better shot of figuring that out. So I feel better about my handle of Alonzo's defense because I saw him 162 times rather than just a couple series here and there. So that helps. You don't want to get swayed too much by... By knowing the player more, because, you know, not all these, you know, the Rockies and Chris Bryant didn't know each other very well.
And they clearly, when they came to terms on that deal. So, but I do think in general, it does help just to have as much knowledge as possible. Like, I wish that I could spend that much time watching all these guys on the list to have a better feel for who they are as players, what they like to do when they come up big, that kind of thing.
You should go to Japan. I mean, if The Athletic isn't sending you to Japan, all the work that you're doing, come on. I think you've earned it. Your brand has never been hotter. So let's go. That's worth a trip to Japan. Did you go to Japan with me? I can't remember. No, you were too young. You were at Arizona State. I mean, you were at the Arizona State of North Carolina, Duke. Yeah. Right?
Yeah, that was, you know, devils go together, right?
2008, where were you? Yeah, yeah, I was finishing my junior year of college.
Okay, all right, just checking. I workshopped it for you so you could go over now. I honestly believe you've earned the right to go over to watch these guys. All right, I'll note to self.
I appreciate that, yeah.
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Chapter 5: What are the implications of a robust first base market for Alonso?
Email... People at Athletic. All right. Well, thank you. You're doing the Lord's work. And I hope you feel good about yourself. I hope you feel good about things. Because, Tim, I sincerely mean it.
where I'm not just lying to you when I compliment you, but when I say like, this is like, this is like such a, you know, that the off season started when this column comes out and it is such a valuable resource for so many people. And it's, it's fun, man. And that's the other part about this. It's the entertainment business is fun. So good job by you.
Yeah, I feel good about it until the first contract comes in. That's how it works.
Again, there's always something that's wrong. So it's all good. Here's my last words I would say about this. It looks good to me. It looks good to me. So there you go. The story is yet to be told. The story is yet to be told. All right.