Let's talk about expectations for the future of the Trump economy....
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What is the overall outlook for the Trump economy according to the latest Conference Board report?
Well, howdy there internet people it's Belle again. So today we're going to talk about the expectations for the future of the Trump economy. The conference board said the consumer confidence index dropped to eighty eight point seven in November. That's the lowest result since April, when Trump announced his tariffs and tanked the stock market. But that isn't actually the bad news. I mean, it's bad news, but it's not the worst news to come out of the recent conference board survey. Last time when we went over these numbers, we got a question saying that they knew the numbers were important, but that people don't have a ready comparison for them. And that makes sense because the numbers are actually a comparison to nineteen eighty five.
How did Chief Economist Dana Peterson explain consumers’ concerns about prices, tariffs, and politics?
So today we'll provide more relatable comparisons for each of the three readings. When discussing the report, Dana Peterson, who is the chief economist at the conference board, said quote Consumers write in responses pertaining to factors affecting the economy continued to be led by references to prices and inflation, tariffs and trade, and politics, with increased mentions of the federal government shutdown. This survey period ran until just after the shutdown ended. The present situation index, which as the name suggests, measures how people feel about the economy now. Came in at one twenty six point nine. That's not actually a horrible reading. But continues the slow decline that has plagued Trump's economy.
Why did the expectations index drop to its lowest level and what does that signal for the economy?
The real bad news was in the expectations index, which measures how consumers feel income, business, and labor market conditions, so the economy overall. We'll be in six months, said The expectations index collapsed eight point six points to sixty three point two. Peterson said quote. Consumers were notably more pessimistic about business conditions six months from now. Mid twenty twenty six expectations for labor market conditions remain decidedly negative. And expectations for increased household incomes shrunk dramatically. Just a reminder that when this number is below eighty, as it has been for a while,
How can we compare the present‑situation and expectations numbers to historical periods like the Great Recession and COVID?
It's considered a leading indicator of recession. Okay, let's do some relatable comparisons to these numbers. Present situation. The number itself isn't horrible, but it's the lowest of his term so far. The expectations index is actually worse than anything we saw even during the height of COVID. You have to go back to the recovery period of the Great Recession to find numbers like this. The overall number is comparable to the numbers that came in while COVID was disrupting the economy. Just a little note on a piece of data that will probably be misrepresented.
What does the shift in recession expectations and delayed GDP reports mean for future economic forecasts?
The percent of people who believe a recession is very likely in the next year fell. And that should seem like good news. And it will probably be presented that way in right wing media. The problem is that the people who believed were already in one grew. Don't worry, we'll have GDP numbers soon to let us know. Oh wait, that's right. Trump delayed those numbers after canceling the jobs report. Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
What is the overall outlook for the Trump economy according to the latest Conference Board report?
0:01–0:54
2
How did Chief Economist Dana Peterson explain consumers’ concerns about prices, tariffs, and politics?
0:54–1:49
3
Why did the expectations index drop to its lowest level and what does that signal for the economy?
1:49–2:39
4
How can we compare the present‑situation and expectations numbers to historical periods like the Great Recession and COVID?
2:39–3:23
5
What does the shift in recession expectations and delayed GDP reports mean for future economic forecasts?
3:23–3:58
Speakers
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