Beau of The Fifth Column
Let's talk about the special election, takeaways, observations, and Trump....
04 Dec 2025
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Well, howdy there, Internet people, it's Belle again. So today, we're going to talk about the special election, takeaways, observations, and Trump. The special election to fill Tennessee's 7th District has been a much-watched and waited-on event.
Chapter 2: What sparked interest in the Tennessee special election?
Before we get into the observations and takeaways, let's talk about why political observers were interested. In the last election, Trump won the very, very, very red district by 22 points. The last time the district went blue was to Ed Jones more than 40 years ago. The Republican in the special election only won by a little less than nine points.
So initially, it was really just of interest to political observers, not because of possible upset, but because it's a solid red district and they would be able to gauge how much Trump has hurt the Republican Party as a whole by comparing the margin of victory to the 22 points Trump had. Then the media picked up on analysts watching it and started reporting on it.
You can't observe something without changing it. When the parties realized it was going to be seen as a test, they started dumping money into the race. It elevated the profile of the race. In theory, it should have increased voter turnout, but it didn't. Not in raw numbers.
There's no apples-to-apples special election in the 7th district for ready comparison, but we can use the last midterm as a comparable. In 2022, there were 180,822 votes cast. In the special election, about 181,000. With the numbers being pretty much the same, you have two options.
Either a massive amount of Trump supporters voted for a Democrat or Trump supporters stayed home while the Democrats were energized. Both of these scenarios are devastating for Republicans. A GOP strategist, Matthew Bartlett, said, What's worse is that Republicans are doing worse in the district when compared to the pre-Trump era.
Almost like Trump permanently damaged the party, and without him on the ticket, they lose his supporters and the Republicans they lost by embracing him. Just a real quick aside on some of the coverage.
Quote, Why is CNN saying Republicans avoided a nightmare? This seems pretty bad. Because it was theoretically possible that they actually lose the seat. What does this tell political analysts? The short answer? Any swing district probably leans Democrat and red districts that are traditionally a plus 10 Republican or less could in theory be won by Democrats.
Between the elections last month and this, expect congressional Republicans to start really questioning things about whether they want to stay in politics and whether they want to continue to rubber stamp Trump. Most will, because the current Republican Party leadership doesn't seem capable of leading them out of this mess of their own creation.
Even though this was a House race, Republicans in the Senate are probably even more inclined to look at Trump as a lame duck already. Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.
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