Let's talk about Trump losing another demographic....

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Belle of the Ranch 3 min 1 speaker 5 chapters transcribed 1 month ago

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What is the overall trend of Trump losing the Latino vote in 2024?

Belle of the Ranch 0:01

Well, howdy there internet people, it's Belle again. So today we're going to talk about Trump losing another demographic. We recently talked about Republicans losing a massive amount of the rule vote in Virginia. A nineteen point swing toward Democrats among a key Republican demographic is worrying for Republican strategists. Now there's two showing massive swings. And this is a demographic the Republican Party really thought they'd hang on to. Republicans are losing the Latino vote they just captured in the twenty twenty four election. It was incredibly prominent in New Jersey. Democrat Mikey Sherrill won sixty eight percent of the Latino vote.

How did the Latino vote swing in New Jersey municipalities like Passaic County?

Belle of the Ranch 0:50

That's a worrying enough sign for Republicans. But what matters is swing. Just to be clear, I'm using the demographic terms the polls use. In municipalities that are majority Hispanic Cheryl saw massive swings in the Democratic Party's favor in comparison to last year. By massive swings, I mean more than twenty points. In some cases, much, much more. As an example, in Patterson, Harris won by 28 points. That's a respectable margin of victory.

What did the October Latino voter survey reveal about economic concerns and Trump’s policies?

Belle of the Ranch 1:25

Cheryl won it by seventy one points. East Newark was plus six for Harris. Cheryl was plus thirty seven. The list goes on and on. Passaic County is about forty five percent Latino, and Trump won it by three points in twenty twenty four. Cheryl won by fifteen points. From October 8th through the 22nd, a survey was conducted of three thousand registered Latino voters. 65% of Latino voters do not think Trump and congressional Republicans are focused enough on the economy. Thirty nine percent of Latinos say their economic situation has gotten worse. A full half believe Trump's economic policies will make their personal economic outlook worse. It's worth just mentioning that in Virginia, Spanberger got sixty seven percent of the Latino vote.

Belle of the Ranch 2:23

And more than half of the Latino mail vote.

How are these demographic shifts affecting Republican strategies in Texas and nationwide?

Belle of the Ranch 2:26

So this isn't isolated to New Jersey. Republicans gerrymanders around the country are in trouble. As we talked about when it was happening, Republicans in Texas counted on retaining the Latino vote. They drew up the maps with support in mind that may be quickly evaporating. This, combined with decent segments of the rule vote going blue, could cause major issues for Republicans in the midterms. Speaker of the House Johnson, whose gavel will be up for grabs in the midterms, dismissed the worries and said quote. I do believe that the demographic shift that we were able to see and experience in the twenty twenty four election will hold. I'm not sure how he can believe it will hold in the future when it doesn't appear to be holding now.

What predictions does House Speaker Johnson make about the future of these voting trends?

Belle of the Ranch 3:19

The Democratic Party has been handed a blueprint for the midterms. They know the demographic makeup of the Texas districts that were redrawn. They know where they can run and where they can focus. They've been shown that a locally tailored economic message works. The results of this election drew out a game plan for areas they probably believed were unwinnable in crayons. Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.

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