Let's talk about Trump, manufacturing, trucks, and nine months of contraction....
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What does Trump’s trade policy promise versus the reality of US manufacturing?
Well, howdy there internet people it's Belle again. So today we're going to talk about Trump Trucks and 9 Months of Contraction. Trump promised a golden age. He promised his tariffs would bring manufacturing back. As is routine. The reality is the opposite of his promises. November marked nine straight months of US manufacturing contracting, and it was the biggest contraction in four months. The Institute for Supply Management's latest survey showed a PMI reading of forty eight point two.
How is the ISM Manufacturing PMI indicating a nine‑month contraction?
Anything below fifty means shrinking US manufacturing. PMI is Purchasing Managers Index. In a completely unsurprising result, the survey data indicates that the US manufacturing base is being dragged down by uncertainty concerning US trade policy. I'll say the line.
Why are manufacturers reporting reduced employment and what does it mean?
Markets hate uncertainty. Basically, customers are holding back orders, waiting for more clarity about what Trump's economic policy will be tomorrow or the day after. The constant shifts in policy that gave birth to the taco trade terminology is hitting American industry hard. Trump's tariffs are not leading to a golden age for American manufacturing. They're pushing it off the cliff. Employment in manufacturing is going the wrong way too. About a quarter of respondents said they had decreased employment. That's the largest percentage of respondents since well, the last time Trump was in office.
What’s causing massive layoffs in trucking, warehousing, and related fields?
That was in mid twenty twenty. The chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, Susan Spence, said something that definitely got everybody's attention. She basically said that without a significant change to trade policy that establishes some kind of certainty when it comes to costs. Quote. We do not see anything on the horizon that's going to turn the ship. She also said that It is not certainly what I think folks expected to have happened. But it's where we are. And again, we're ten months into the news that is kind of freezing everybody in place for the decision making. Wow. If manufacturing is being hit, what's next? Trucks. The Ten Rhodes Group of Companies, which is one of the largest US mail haulers, has notified its employees that it will start winding down over the next sixty days and terminate its postal contracts by the end of January.
But that's just the latest news to hit the trucking industry.
How did Black Friday sales reflect higher prices but lower unit volumes?
And postal hauling isn't exactly manufacturing. But trucking trade outlets suggest that announcements over the last five weeks say about twelve thousand people in the trucking, warehousing, and manufacturing fields are being laid off. This combined with the Black Friday numbers showing Americans are paying more for less. might give us some indication as to what would have been in those economic reports the Trump administration has delayed or canceled. We'll try to get into the Black Friday numbers soon. But we've already got a lot of economics videos this week. The short version is that sales went up, but units sold went down and That means higher prices are what gave sales their bump. People actually bought fewer items.
The only people making out in that scenario are Trump's billionaire buddies, not the consumer. Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
What does Trump’s trade policy promise versus the reality of US manufacturing?
0:01–0:39
2
How is the ISM Manufacturing PMI indicating a nine‑month contraction?
0:39–1:01
3
Why are manufacturers reporting reduced employment and what does it mean?
1:01–1:45
4
What’s causing massive layoffs in trucking, warehousing, and related fields?
1:45–2:56
5
How did Black Friday sales reflect higher prices but lower unit volumes?
2:56–4:01
Speakers
1 identifiedMore from Belle of the Ranch
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