Let's talk about Trump, polls, ducks, and albatrosses....

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Belle of the Ranch 4 min 1 speaker 5 chapters transcribed 1 month ago

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What is the episode’s opening overview of Trump, polls, ducks, and albatrosses?

Belle of the Ranch 0:01

Well, howdy there internet people, it's Belle again. So today we're going to talk about Trump, Poles, Ducks, and albatrosses. As Republican officials from Indiana to Capitol Hill start to disregard Trump's demands this week. There are some numbers that might help put their newfound spines in focus. It might also explain why they're treating Trump more and more like a lame duck. And we've had a couple of questions about that term from people overseas. In this context, a president becomes a lame duck when they've exhausted their political power. Generally that happens after the midterm elections of a president's second term.

How is a “lame‑duck” president defined and why is Trump being called one?

Belle of the Ranch 0:48

They're term limited, so they can't offer much to their party in the future. Other politicians start jockeying for various leadership positions and try to differentiate themselves from the current president, and that further undermines him. But some new numbers suggest Trump is not just starting his decline into lame duck status. But he's also become an albatross around the neck of the GOP. According to a new PBS News MPR Marist poll. A majority of voters would want a Democrat to represent them in Congress if the midterms occurred today. Fifty five percent want a Democratic candidate to represent them in Congress, and only forty one percent would vote for a Republican. That's a fourteen point lead for Democrats.

What do the latest PBS/Marist poll numbers reveal about Trump’s impact on the GOP?

Belle of the Ranch 1:41

For Republicans, the numbers haven't been this bad well, since the last time Trump was in office. The last time it was this bad was November 2017. In the following midterms, the Democratic Party gained 40 seats in the House. As horrible as those numbers are for Republicans, that's not the worst part. When it comes to independence, a demographic Republicans desperately need. The Democrats have a thirty-three point advantage over the Republicans. Yeah. The polling suggests that independents are breaking two to one in favor of Democrats.

Why are Republican approval and independent voter trends dropping sharply?

Belle of the Ranch 2:22

The polling also suggests that independents firmly place the blame on Republicans for Trump's shutdown. Forty one percent blame Trump. Thirty-two percent blame the Republicans in Congress, and twenty-seven percent blame the congressional Democrats. So seventy three percent of them blame the Republican side of the aisle. But wait, there's more. Both Democrats and Independents think the administration should be focused on lowering prices. Trump is probably catching the blame for, you know, putting tariffs on everything. And it's important to remember that a tariff's core job is to raise prices.

Which issues (prices, tariffs, immigration) are now top priorities for voters and Republicans?

Belle of the Ranch 3:07

It's not surprising the overwhelming majority of Democrats and Independents think Trump should focus on prices. What is surprising is that even among Republicans, forty percent say that lowering prices should be the Trump administration's top priority. It even beat out immigration as the top priority for Republicans. A new national poll by Marquette Law School produced incredibly similar results. Even a Fox News poll is sounding alarms for Republicans. The Republican Party following Trump's lead has set the stage for a repeat of Trump's first term. If the Democratic Party can unite behind an economic policy that speaks to the average American, they might be in a position to curtail Trump's worst impulses in about a year.

Belle of the Ranch 4:02

But a year is an eternity in politics. So while Democrats are probably energized by this news, it's still a long way off. Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.

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