Beau of The Fifth Column
Let's talk about Trump vs China_ 6 months in and China’s winning....
20 Oct 2025
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Well, howdy there, Internet people. It's Belle again. So today, we're going to talk about Trump versus China. Six months in, and China's winning.
Chapter 2: What are the key themes in the Trump vs China trade discussion?
It's time to take a quick look at how Trump's trade policies have played out. About six months ago, on April 5th, Trump announced to the world that, quote, China has been hit much harder than the USA, not even close. They and many other nations have treated us unsustainably badly. We have been the dumb and helpless whipping post, but not any longer.
We are bringing back jobs and businesses like never before. These are Trump's metrics for success. China's being hit harder is a reference to trade, import and exports. Then we have jobs. Those are his metrics. That's not something a world-renowned economist said he wasn't taking into account. It's not something made up that was unrelated to his goals. That's what he said.
He also says businesses, but that's not actually a thing in the days of multinational companies. He might mean investment dollars, but there's no way to quantify that because he won't provide real numbers on anything. Let's start with the easiest one, jobs. The jobs market is now so bad, he fired the calculator.
Now we're not getting government reports because he was incapable of keeping the government open. But we're getting private analysis and we have the other BLS reports. Job growth has collapsed, but most notably, the sectors Trump promised to help, manufacturing, mining, construction, and wholesale trade, they all sure seem to show negative job growth. That means Trump lost jobs, not created them.
Was China hurt more on trade? No. Chinese exports globally are actually up 8.3% in September compared with a year ago, bringing in around $328 billion. Exports to the U.S. are down, but they made up for that elsewhere. In other words, the U.S. is losing out on trade. Projections for the year from the World Bank back in April said China's economy would grow by 4%.
Those projections have been revised upward to 4.8%. Meanwhile, the U.S. projections have been cut down from around 2.3% to 1.4%. These are the economic numbers, just pure math. But foreign trade is inextricably tied to foreign policy. China is trading with these other economies on a deeper level. Those countries will establish closer ties with China.
Their economies will become intertwined, which means their foreign policies will be intertwined.
Chinese reliance on US consumers is part of how the US kept China in check.
That check is gone now. Thanks, Obama.
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