Let's talk about Trump's $1776 payout and the economy....

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Belle of the Ranch 4 min 1 speaker 5 chapters transcribed 1 month ago

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What is the $1,776 payout Trump promised to troops and why does it matter?

Belle of the Ranch 0:01

Well, howdy there internet people it's Belle again. So today, we're going to talk about Trump's $1,776 payout to troops and the economy. Trump announced that troops would get a one-time payment of one thousand seven hundred and seventy-six dollars to mark the two hundred and fiftieth anniversary of the Declaration of Independence. It would theoretically include about one point four five million people. So Let's go through Trump's claims and then the reality. Trump said quote

How does Trump justify the payout using tariffs and what does the data actually show?

Belle of the Ranch 0:42

Because of tariffs, we are sending every soldier one thousand seven hundred seventy six dollars. And the checks are already on the way. Nobody deserves it more than our military. We made a lot more money than anybody thought because of tariffs. That would be cool. But according to the Yale Budget Lab, we're getting hit with an overall average effective tariff rate of sixteen point eight percent, which is the highest since nineteen thirty five. The average cost of those tariffs per household is currently figured at seventeen hundred.

Where is the money really coming from if not from tariff revenue?

Belle of the Ranch 1:20

So it'll cover the tariffs and a couple of trips to the shop at. Now the obvious question about all of this is how does he plan on getting this appropriated? However, according to reporting, the money isn't coming from tariff revenue at all. And is instead coming from repurposing money approved through the one big beautiful bill that was slated for military housing. The plan that will cost about two point five billion apparently came together about thirty minutes before it was announced. It apparently applies to all troops from O six down to E one. Dancers in Columbus are going to have a good month.

What are the broader economic implications of injecting billions into the economy while Trump blames inflation on Biden?

Belle of the Ranch 2:04

Injecting a couple of billion into the economy, while Trump calls affordability a conjob and hoax, and simultaneously saying the economy is Biden's fault, while also saying it's doing great is certainly a mixed bag of messaging. Trump's economic messaging woes are getting worse as time goes on, and unemployment goes up. While his inflation report is now being called out as incomplete, to put it nicely. Not just by financial analysts and outlets, but by major outlets. In fact, the only economist I've seen that seems to be accepting the report at face value is the person rumored to be on the shortlist for the next chair of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Hassett, who said, quote, I'm not saying that we are going to declare victory yet on the price problem.

Belle of the Ranch 3:03

But this is just an astonishingly good CPI report.

Why are analysts skeptical of the latest CPI report and how could it affect market confidence?

Belle of the Ranch 3:08

Appearing to cosign this report is not going to inspire confidence from the investment world if he does end up in the big terror at the central bank. I mean, even Reuters is calling it distorted, and CMBC is talking about the empty data squares, particularly dealing with the key part of what's used to calculate housing inflation. The next report had better cross all the T's and dot the I's, or we'll start to see the reports to be viewed with skepticism by default. Which will set up a loss of confidence in financial numbers, which will shake the market more widely. The markets run on estimates and hate uncertainty. Causing uncertainty about the estimates is just all bad. We'll keep watching this develop.

Belle of the Ranch 4:01

Anyway. It's just a thought y'all have a good day.

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