Let's talk about Trump’s jobs report and foreclosures....

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Belle of the Ranch 3 min 1 speaker 5 chapters transcribed 1 month ago

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What is the Trump jobs report and why is it controversial?

Belle of the Ranch 0:01

Well, howdy there, internet people it's Bell again. So today we're going to talk about Trump's jobs report and foreclosures. The Trump administration has said that it's unlikely the public will ever see the economic numbers for October. And blame the shutdown for that. Many believe Trump is hiding bad numbers, especially since a lot of private data says the US lost jobs in October. Trump has been bragging about job growth, but the numbers say the US hasn't seen job growth this week since well, the last time Trump was in office. If you discount that year, and it would be fair to do so, because it was the year the pandemic took hold. You have to go back to two thousand nine and the Great Recession to find numbers as bad as Trump's numbers through August.

Belle of the Ranch 0:57

Using August because those are the last numbers we have.

How do foreclosures serve as an economic indicator in this analysis?

Belle of the Ranch 1:01

While jobs numbers can be a good indicator, we really don't have a clean and clear picture now. What other indicators do we have? Well, we mentioned the Great Recession. That's kind of symbolized by foreclosed homes, said When it comes to foreclosures as an economic indicator, there are two numbers you can look at. You can look at foreclosure starts or completed foreclosures. For once, those are exactly what they sound like. Which doesn't always happen in economic language. Starts are the beginning phase and completed foreclosures are the last phase.

What are the recent foreclosure start and completion rate trends?

Belle of the Ranch 1:42

In October, foreclosure starts rose six percent for the month. That's bad. But it's even worse when you consider they've been climbing. Year over year they're twenty percent higher. And completed foreclosures jumped a whopping thirty two percent year over year. Those are big numbers. That's a surge. That being said, it's important to look at historical averages because we're already starting to see people say it's echoing the housing crisis of the Great Recession. Eh, not really.

How do current foreclosure numbers compare to the Great Recession?

Belle of the Ranch 2:19

Not yet, anyway. Right now the foreclosure surge is primarily limited to just a few states. But it's the big picture comparisons that matter. During the Great Recession, about four percent of mortgages were in foreclosure. Today it's about half a percent. Any percent of mortgages in foreclosure is bad. But as far as historical average, half a percent is actually on the low end. That's good news. The bad news is that during the Great Recession, twelve percent of mortgages were delinquent.

What risks could trigger a surge in foreclosures ahead?

Belle of the Ranch 2:57

Right now, it's already at four percent. It's at four percent before the downturned most economists say is coming. Add into that that consumer debt is at an all time high. So the end read here is that the economy isn't getting better, at least not for people with mortgages. But it's also not at great recession levels. However, the stage is set for an economic downturn to send the foreclosure rates through the roof. Be careful of people saying that two plus two equals five. Anyway. It's just a thought y'all have a good day.

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