Let's talk about Trump's shutdown, the economy, and the disconnect....
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What is the overall impact of Trump’s shutdown on the U.S. economy?
Well, howdy there internet people it spell again. So today we're going to talk about Trump's shutdown, the economy, and the disconnect. It's been a bad few days for economic news, and it highlights the growing disconnect between the actual economy and the perception of it by those on the top. Okay. So first we have Trump shut down. Republicans, despite having majorities in both houses, refused to fix the one big broken bill and its impacts on working class Americans. So now we're in a shutdown. The last government shutdown caused eleven billion dollars in economic damage.
How did the recent government shutdown compare to the previous $11 billion loss?
Three billion was never recovered. If Trump follows through with his mass firing threats, the economic damage from this shutdown will be immense. He'll make a bad problem worse. Because it isn't just those people being fired who lose out, but all of the businesses they shop at. Then we have the payroll company ADP releasing their jobs numbers. It suggests that US private sector businesses lost thirty two thousand jobs in September. Even worse, the previous month was downwardly revised into the negative as well. ADP's chief economists said quote.
What do ADP’s September job numbers reveal about private‑sector hiring trends?
In fact, though the numbers changed, the story and the narrative and the trend remained the same. Hiring momentum has slowed from the beginning of the year through September. That's bad economic news. Especially when Trump is threatening to compound the problem by firing government workers. It's even more unsettling because government numbers won't likely be coming because of the shutdown. Then we have the price of gold. Investors use gold as a safe haven. When the price of gold goes up, it's generally bad news for the economy as a whole.
Why is the surge in gold prices being seen as a warning sign for the economy?
Gold hit a record three thousand eight hundred fifty eight dollars and forty five cents per troy ounce. Trump slapped more tariffs on lumber and on cabinets. I'm sure that'll help the housing market. Business spending and consumer confidence are all flashing recession indicators, along with a host of others. What's happening with the stock market? It's trending slightly up. This week shouldn't have seen a positive market. It is divorced from the economic realities at this point.
How is the stock market’s upward trend disconnected from current economic realities?
And we've now hit the point where a lot of financial news outlets have changed phrasing and framing a bit. They're no longer talking about whether the market is headed to correction or crash. But they're trying to pick the month or quarter it'll happen in. It's no longer if, but when. If you were to search market crash in Google and then click news, you'll see it. On that note, we've had a couple of questions about the October effect. It's a belief that October is bad luck for the market. Nineteen twenty nine, nineteen eighty seven, some of the bigger falls in two thousand eight,
Is the ‘October effect’ a real market risk or just a self‑fulfilling superstition?
All October. But real analysis shows it to be coincidence. That being said. When the market is running on emotion and there's a widespread superstition that influences emotion. It might end up being a self fulfilling prophecy. Americans desperately need to stop using the market as a general metric for the economy. If that trend continues, a lot of people will be caught by surprise, and surprise or shock downturns are more difficult for people to manage. The stock market is not the economy. Anyway. It's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What is the overall impact of Trump’s shutdown on the U.S. economy?
0:01–0:47
2
How did the recent government shutdown compare to the previous $11 billion loss?
0:47–1:29
3
What do ADP’s September job numbers reveal about private‑sector hiring trends?
1:29–2:11
4
Why is the surge in gold prices being seen as a warning sign for the economy?
2:11–2:48
5
How is the stock market’s upward trend disconnected from current economic realities?
2:48–3:31
6
Is the ‘October effect’ a real market risk or just a self‑fulfilling superstition?
3:31–4:14
Speakers
1 identifiedMore from Belle of the Ranch
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