Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Well, howdy there, internet people. It's Belle again. So today, we're going to talk about whether your state is in a recession. If you've missed it, there's been a bunch of memes and articles going around saying some states are in recession.
Chapter 2: What are the signs that a state might be in recession?
This has prompted a lot of questions. Our metal shop guys have been kind enough to send us a message that has all the questions being asked. Quote, Can a state go into recession and not the country? The guy you said you probably wouldn't contradict said that 20-something states were in recession. But there's some debate here about what that even means.
If almost half the states are in recession, doesn't that mean the country is going into recession? What does it mean for people in that state? Okay. So Mark Zandi, who is the chief economist at Moody's Analytics, put out some information after combing through state-level data. He found that 22 were on the brink of recession.
Those states are Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Virginia, West Virginia, Wyoming, Washington State, and Washington, D.C. D.C. is an estate, but there you go. So the questions. Can a state go into recession? Yes, absolutely.
It's just not normally data that gets tracked and discussed on a national level. That's why D's show is important. Recession is generally defined as two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction. States and even cities track their GDP. Think of a small town that had a big factory that closed. That town would go into recession.
If almost half the states are in recession, doesn't that mean the country will be? No, not necessarily. That would assume that all states have the same economic output, and they don't. To show how drastic the disparity is, we're going to illustrate it in a fun way. Greater Los Angeles had a GDP of $1.3 trillion in 2023. That's bigger than most states.
By most, I mean all states, except Florida, New York, Texas, and obviously California. The biggest economic powerhouses at the state level are either treading water or slowly growing. What does it mean for people in those states? It means even though the country isn't experiencing a recession as a whole, they might feel like they're in one.
I would imagine that farming, manufacturing, and tourism-dependent areas, as well as those with a lot of federal workers, feel like the US is experiencing a recession, even though it isn't, at least not yet.
If you look at the list of states, that's kind of what we're seeing. Why? Trump policies and Canadians not coming. The economy is an absolute mess right now, and there are a lot of indicators that show the economy is on very shaky ground. But the standard barometers people use to gauge the health of the economy aren't showing it, because the rich folks are doing fine under Trump's policies.
It's just the working class getting hammered. That won't hold forever, though. Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.
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