Let's talk about women wanting to leave the US forever....
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What is the surprising trend about women wanting to leave the US permanently?
Well, howdy there internet people, it's Belle again. So today we're going to talk about women wanting to leave the US forever. This is about a bit of obscure polling, but somebody asked a question about it, and it's a good teachable moment to understand trends as well as causation and correlation. More and more women aged fifteen to forty four would like to permanently leave the United States. And we're not talking about a small swing. The polling from Gallup shows that for a long time all age and gender breakdowns were relatively in line. Normally, less than twenty percent wanted to give up on the US and move somewhere else forever. The percentage of women aged fifteen to forty-four who now want to get out of the US is now at forty percent.
Okay, so that brings us to the question.
How might Trump’s rhetoric and political power influence women’s desire to emigrate?
Miss Bell. I'm working on something about the male loneliness epidemic and believe it's related to Trump's rhetoric and men buying into it, making them less appealing. And I found the poll that shows more young women want to leave the US while Trump is president than they do when literally anybody else is president. It shot up when he was elected, declined as he lost power, and dropped when Biden was elected. But there's a weird bump in the middle of Biden's term, and it doesn't fit with what I was expecting. Then it shot back up to record levels as Trump became likely to regain power. Okay, so first I want to say that correlation is not causation, and it seems like you're wanting to make the numbers match your preconceived belief.
But you're also looking for an explanation for the deviation. And not just overlooking the deviation.
Why does the poll show an unexpected increase during Biden’s term?
Your belief is that the correlation between women wanting to leave And Trump being in power is causative. But that weird Biden bump seems to throw that off. The numbers probably aren't wrong. Your premise probably is If you dig deeper, you see that while both married and single women were part of the weird bump, Single women saw an increase almost twice that of married women. From the twenty twenty slash twenty one to twenty twenty two slash twenty three period. Married women went at three points.
What differences appear between married and single women in the emigration data?
Single women went at five. You're trying to correlate to Trump's rhetoric and proximity to the levers of power, making women feel uncomfortable. I'm going to suggest that maybe it isn't how close he is to power. But when women feel the effects of him pulling the levers. June twenty fourth, twenty twenty two is in the weird Biden bump period. That's when the Supreme Court overturned Roe. Gallup actually has an article analyzing the data, and they tie it in with a loss of faith in national institutions. It's pretty compelling that younger American women really don't like the direction of the country in the Trump era. The idea that it makes women less likely to date men who hold the beliefs that led to their loss of faith in American institutions seems pretty sound.
What are the overall implications of 40‑45% of women wanting to leave the country?
But it doesn't seem like it's Trump being close to power exactly. It's the societal impact. Guys, forty one percent of married and forty five percent of single women aged fifteen to forty four would leave the country and never return if given the opportunity. If they're willing to leave the country because of resurgent misogyny, They're probably willing to leave the date. Anyway. It's just a thought y'all have a good date.
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
What is the surprising trend about women wanting to leave the US permanently?
0:01–1:00
2
How might Trump’s rhetoric and political power influence women’s desire to emigrate?
1:00–2:03
3
Why does the poll show an unexpected increase during Biden’s term?
2:03–2:39
4
What differences appear between married and single women in the emigration data?
2:39–3:36
5
What are the overall implications of 40‑45% of women wanting to leave the country?
3:36–4:08
Speakers
1 identifiedMore from Belle of the Ranch
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