Andrew Dickens: Those predicting recession may end up red in the face

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Recorded15 Aug 2022

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So let's be honest with each other Did you, in your darkest heart, secretly hope the All Blacks would lose to prove that Ian Foster was always the wrong man. To get Scott Robertson into the driving seat? C'mon. Many did. Some even admitted it on social media. Now if you did, it's quite a dark place really. Actively rooting against your own team, even if you think it would be best for the team eventually. Diehard fans would be disgusted. They'd call you a fairweather fan. Not there for the team, only to share in their glory. If you're important enough or your voice is loud enough the players may hear of it and it may crush their spirit which no-one wants. It's OK to think that others could do a better job but there is no benefit in wishing for failure. I say this because for some time I've been appalled by the number of people who appear to want New Zealand to fail because they don't like the current Government. It's almost like they're hoping for a recession just to prove to everybody, or maybe just to themselves, that the Government is an ignorant, economically illiterate mess. It's important to differentiate between those people analysing the economy as scientifically as they can and others offering opinion for their own benefit. You get that negative stink off the Opposition right now who would be the only leaders praying for economic Armageddon, because it may see them elected to the benches. But hoping and praying for economic doom is not a sound idea. Either you inherit the doom and it proves hard to fix, or the doom never really arrives, making you look stupid. There is no arguing that New Zealand is doing it tough at the moment but that's true of every economy on Earth. Every government running an economy is falling backwards in popularity no matter what side of the political fence they're on. But awkwardly, New Zealand might not be heading for doom. The ANZ last week in their quarterly outlook suggested we look like avoiding recession. They predict inflation will be at 2.5 percent next year. Goldman Sachs has also come out and said that both Australia and New Zealand will skip recession. Sydney based Capital Economics sees the cycle turning even faster with the OCR going no higher than 3.5 percent and three cuts next year. Jucy, the motorhome rental firm, has just announced a $40 million credit line to buy more homes due to demand. A mate of mine who runs a tourism firm in his retirement is complaining about working too hard and his forward orders are huge. If it all adds up to the economy looking better by next year's election, not worse, that could prove problematic for all those predicting doom and gloom.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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