Nick Tuffley: ASB Senior Economist on the revised economic outcome forecasts, impact of Middle East conflict

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Recorded30 Mar 2026

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With so much uncertainty in the Middle East, people should focus on preparing for different scenarios that could affect their businesses, ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley says. ASB’s revised outlook forecasts inflation to climb further this year and GDP growth contracting for the second quarter thanks to higher fuel prices hitting consumers. Tuffley told Mike Hosking that Q2 was when the peak impacts of the oil shock would ripple through and affect people’s spending power. The ASB forecast —of GDP growth at 1.3% and inflation at 4%— was “not the end of the world” but would delay New Zealand’s economic recovery, he said. Inflation had hit 5% before, when oil prices were high before the financial crisis. That level of inflation was still possible this year, but the Reserve Bank had time to wait, given New Zealand’s economy wasn’t overheating. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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