Perspective with Ryan Bridge: We've got to take the wins where we can get them

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Recorded09 Apr 2025

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So the Reserve Bank did the predictable thing today and cut 25 basis points. Good news for mortgage holders, good news for the economy, more money in our pockets and more money to spend. Of course it's not going to change the world, it's a quarter of as percent on the wholesale rate. And the wholesale rate is only makes up a portion of the bank's rate. And the bank's rate only matters if you haven't already fixed. And so far, the banks haven't budged on fixed rates, only floating. The banks' swap rates are most important here - and there's talk they could fall further too, so we could get a 4.5 percent rate this year instead of the current 4.99 on two year. Either way, it's the general direction that we like the sound of. Loosening, lowering, the direction of travel - to steal a term from Jacinda - is good. And our disposable income is going up. Great. But of course, the question then becomes - will we actually spend it? Are we now so worried about trigger-happy Trump and his tariffs that we don't get that new couch or don't upgrade the car or don't get the kids back to ballet class because the subs were too expensive? The answer is - we don't know yet, because we haven't had any confidence surveys for the past week. But if Trump doesn't start doing deals soon, then my bet is people will starting pulling back a bit. Maybe not all the way, but enough to slow a recovery. Just talk to your friends and family and ask how they're feeling about things at the moment. So there's reason to be weary - but one mustn't be ungrateful. When inflation is beat and the Government's talking about growth and a budget surplus rather than more borrowing, you've got to take the wins when you get them. No matter how small or teenie-tiny they may be. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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