Monologue: How OpenAI Kills Oracle
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What financial challenges does OpenAI face in the coming years?
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A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what y'all say. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor IV.
How does Oracle's future depend on OpenAI's success?
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Two percent.
What is the significance of the Stargate Abilene data center project?
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Hello and welcome to this week's Better Offline Monologue, I'm your host Ed Zitron.
Forgive me if I sound a little congested, I'm sick, I promise I'm resting up, but this is an important one. Today I'm going to talk to you about something I'm brewing over in my premium newsletter. It'll be out later today, but this is information you need to know and don't need to cough up money to find out. There'll be more details, but you're going to get a lot today. So I want to be very clear about something. For OpenAI to be able to pay the deals it has signed with all of these different companies, Amazon, Microsoft, CoreWeave, Cerebrus, and Oracle, it will have to be 10 to 15 times its current revenue and have raised at least another $150 billion. If it fails, Oracle will run out of money and not be able to pay its debts and probably shut down.
How much revenue does Oracle expect from its data centers?
And I know that sounds insane because Oracle is so large and has been around for so long. But let me explain. Oracle is building around 7.1 gigawatts of data center capacity for OpenAI, with the majority of it looking like it will be finished somewhere towards the end of 2028 at absolute best, if not the end of 2029 or 2030, if it ever gets built. Stargate Abilene, the only one of them anywhere near completion, started in the middle of 2024, sits two years into construction at two buildings and around 200 megawatts of capacity out of the eight that are being built. Eight buildings, I mean. Based on reports throughout the last two years, Stargate Abilene was meant to be fully energized somewhere between, I don't know, the end of 2025 and the middle of 2026, yet sources on the ground tell me they don't expect this thing to be finished anywhere before April 2027.
For a source familiar with Oracle's infrastructure, Building 3 has finished construction and been handed over, but barely has any gear in it.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What financial challenges does OpenAI face in the coming years?
0:00–0:10
2
How does Oracle's future depend on OpenAI's success?
0:10–1:11
3
What is the significance of the Stargate Abilene data center project?
1:11–3:16
4
How much revenue does Oracle expect from its data centers?
3:16–7:48
5
What are the projected costs associated with Oracle's data center projects?
7:48–11:02
6
How will OpenAI's revenue growth impact Oracle's viability?
11:02–13:10
7
What are the risks involved with Oracle's current financial strategy?
13:10–15:15
8
What conclusions can be drawn about the future of OpenAI and Oracle?
15:15–15:35