Blain’s Morning Porridge April 20th, 2026: Day Trading vs 60-year K-Waves“He must know something, but don’t say nothing...”The markets are on a tear convinced normalisation is around the next corner. Yet they ignore the reality the Iran war has done significant damage to the global outlook – even if Tehran and Washington kiss and make up tomorrow. I don’t claim to understand the madness of markets and their ability to keep fooling themselves, but I do follow economic history and how events change outcomes.LINK TO PODCASTHere we go... another exciting week in the global financial markets.... What have we got to look forward to? Let me try to explain it … Trump is going to declare a new war on a country he had obliterated 2 ago weeks because they are doing what the US is doing– blockading the Strait of Hormuz? Is that about it? Think so. The story of the age – the War in Iran…. How much will US cabinet secretaries make this week front running Trump’s Tweets? Want to know what’s really going on in the White House? Try this article from the WSJ “Behind Trump’s Bravado, He Grapples With His Own Fears.”But, what everyone really, really wants to know is why are Markets so hot when the outlook looks so dire? Stocks have been on a 2-week role since Trump declared he’s won and cease-fired. Markets have a habit of looking unconcerned, happily buying the dip, convinced everything will be fine, right up to moment it isn’t.Back in the 1970s stocks also anticipated early upside after the October 1973 shock – expecting prices and supply would swiftly normalise after the Yom Kippur War. They did not. The 40% stock tumble came months later and lasted a year as it became clear just how deep and wide the economic consequences of higher oil and societal damage went. Inflation soared, earnings collapsed, unemployment rose, and angry politics got very messy. Prices recovered back to pre-shock levels by 1976 but tumbled again following the botched Jimmy Carter raid on Tehran in 1979 and stayed depressed for the next few years.Today stock-pickers will tell you “this time it’s different” – the most dangerous words in finance.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Ask this episode

“What did the council decide on item 42?” — answered with the speaker and the moment.

Transcript

Related