Oil Prices Grind Higher, US-Japan BoJ Split, More

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Bloomberg News Now 8 min 8 speakers 7 chapters transcribed 1 month ago
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Why are oil prices grinding higher and what could push them above $100 a barrel?

Jennifer Zabasaja 0:00
A new chapter in global growth is being written and much of it is happening in Africa.
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Africans need to invest. There are deals to be done and business to be won.
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I'm Jennifer Zabasaja. Every week on the Next Africa podcast, we track capital flows and political shifts shaping the continent's future.
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Digitalization of Africa is gonna power its growth. Bridging the world of something like HIV is possible. Population growth is so enormous in Africa.
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Listen to Next Africa on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get
Tiwa Adebayo 0:29
your podcasts. News when you want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm Tia Adibayo.
Stephen Carroll 0:34
And I'm Stephen Carroll.
Tiwa Adebayo 0:36
Oil prices are continuing to grind higher today as scepticism grows over the prospects for a deal to restore energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude is now trading above eighty nine dollars a barrel after jumping by around twelve percent over the past five sessions.

How is the US‑Iran standoff in the Strait of Hormuz affecting global oil supplies?

Tiwa Adebayo 0:51
Bloomberg Intelligence says a frozen US Iran conflict is now the most plausible scenario. It warns that could push oil into a range of a hundred to one hundred and fifty dollars. dollars a barrel, with the upper end becoming increasingly possible as market buffers erode. Noam Radan is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Unknown 1:11
It is unlikely that we're gonna go back to the maritime arrangement that existed in the Strait of Hurmons before the Iran War. Iran has gained immense influence in the strait. It will not let go of this leverage it has obtained easily.
Tiwa Adebayo 1:29
Noam Radan's assessment comes as the latest US government forecast expects oil supply disruption from the war to reach about 600,000 barrels a day until the end of next year. According to the squeeze, adding to the squeeze, Russia's overseas crude shipments have fallen to their lowest since May amid continued Ukrainian strikes on its oil infrastructure. Kiev hit five Russian refineries in the first week of August. August and another two in recent days.
Stephen Carroll 1:57
The advance in oil prices comes as the US and Iran both appear to be hardening their positions in negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. That's despite Pakistan's defence minister saying the two countries are close to some sort of arrangement. Former US Deputy Secretary St Secretary of State Wendy Sherman is more skeptical.

What does the US‑Japan split over Bank of Japan policy mean for the yen?

Unknown 2:14
I wish I did share Pakistan's optimism and I will hope that there is more reality to this than I think there is. We are definitely at a stalemate.
Stephen Carroll 2:25
Wendy Sherman was speaking as President Trump told reporters last night that he's in no rush to secure a deal and that the US is in a very good position. How long the conflict continues could also matter for the Federal Reserve, with the Iran war adding to inflation pressures ahead of the latest data due out today. Boston Fed President Susan Collins has told the Financial Times she could back a September rate hike if the data dictates, warning that inflation remains too high.
Tiwa Adebayo 2:51
A split between the US and Japan over Bank of Japan policy risks undermining their joint efforts to support the yen. Japan's Prime Minister Sanai Takeichi is wary of raising interest rates too high too fast, while US Treasury Secretary Scott Besson sees monetary tightening as crucial to supporting the currency. The Yen has already given back some of the gains from the first coordinated US-Japan intervention. Since nineteen ninety eight, our markets live strategist Mark Cranfield says the BOJ's next move will be crucial.
Mark Cranfield 3:24
So the BOJ speakers will really have a big sway on whether or not people get serious about a September rate hike, but it probably needs September and October to come back to back for people to really get behind the yen.
Tiwa Adebayo 3:38
That's Bloomberg's Mark Cranfield. Expectations are building for another BOJ rate hike in September or October, as the yen again is one hundred and sixty to the dollar.
Stephen Carroll 3:49
Coreweave shares have surged in after hours trading. After booming AI demand bolsters the company's sales growth, the computing provider raised its outlook to a range of twelve point four billion to thirteen point two billion dollars for the full year after revenue more than doubled in the second quarter.

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