Trump's Hormuz Warning to Iran, Anthropic Cyber Fears, More
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News when you want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm Charles Capel. And I'm Stephen Carroll. The United States and Iran are counting down to the start of peace talks this weekend in Pakistan as Israeli strikes in Lebanon and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz threaten to derail diplomatic efforts. On social media, President Trump warned Tehran against charging transit fees through the straits, saying, they better not be, and if they are, they better stop now.
What warning did Trump give to Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz?
The post followed earlier remarks in which the US president said he was very optimistic about securing a deal with Iran. Stuart Livingstone-Wallace leads Bloomberg's Middle East coverage.
Certainly from the U.S. side, it's going to be the vice president, along with Wyckoff and Kushner. From the Iranian delegation, we're not entirely sure yet, although they were supposed to have arrived yesterday. Again, some vagueness about whether that actually happened. And it's entirely conceivable that others may join, too. Clearly, there is huge regional pressure here to get some sort of ceasefire. I mean, the difficulties that they will have going into this talk are the same difficulties that preceded the war, which is the two sides, and I'm thinking specifically about the U.S. and Iran, are so far apart in terms of what they want to talk about and largely what might constitute an acceptable position for both of them.
That's Bloomberg's Stuart Livingstone-Wallace. Meanwhile, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has agreed to talks with Lebanon. President Trump said the Israeli leader is going to low-key it with strikes on the country. However, Netanyahu has vowed to keep fighting around back Hezbollah after a wave of Israeli strikes on Wednesday which killed more than 300 people in Lebanon.
As diplomatic attention shifts to this weekend's talks, the risks to global energy supplies from the war continue to grow. According to Saudi Arabia's state-run news agency, the kingdom has lost nearly 600,000 barrels a day of production capacity as a result of Iranian attacks. The reports also say its ability to export oil has been severely curtailed. Strikes on the key east-west pipeline to the Red Sea have cut flows by around 700,000 barrels a day. World Bank President Ajay Banga says it's still hard to assess the full impact of the energy shock.
Right now, while there is some kind of a ceasefire, you can make a guess of what kind of damage has happened to facilities. If the conflict were to restart, then what kind of damage continues to happen to energy production facilities is unclear. Those two dimensions are what we're using. We've got a scenario that says that if it comes to a ceasefire now and three to four months of normalization, we have some impact on growth, some impact on inflation, both on the wrong side.
Ajit Banga speaking there to Bloomberg as markets face a daily shortfall of more than 10 million barrels, roughly one-tenth of global demand due to the effect of closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Employees at the White House are being warned not to place insider bets. Bloomberg understands a staff-wide email has been sent after a series of winning trades made ahead of the US President speaking to the media. James Walcock has more.
Rewind two weeks. It was 6.49am in New York on a Thursday and a relatively sleepy hour of the trading day suddenly spikes.
How are the US and Iran preparing for upcoming peace talks?
Billions of dollars changed hands in futures contracts for the S&P, Brent and the Stoxx 50. Fifteen minutes later, President Trump posts online about positive discussions with Iran, making those earlier bets a lot of money. Anonymous accounts on prediction markets also saw an early flurry of correct bets, which prompted the White House's management office to warn staff the day later about insider trading. Bloomberg has no evidence White House officials did profit from inside information, which would be a gross breach of ethics rules and the law. In London, James Woolcock, Bloomberg Radio.
Wall Street's top bank CEOs were called to an urgent meeting at the US Treasury about the risk of a new cybersecurity AI tool.
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