Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Are things going to settle down? The president threatening to impose additional tariffs on some European allies supporting Denmark while he pursues Greenland. The Finland president, Alexander Stubb, joins us now for more. Mr. President, good to see you. Nice to see you. Thanks for always making some time for us.
I would never traditionally start a conversation like this with a head of state, but given the news flow and the headlines and the pictures of texts we've seen over the past few days, I have to get a better understanding from you directly.
I understand you were on an exchange with the President of the United States where the President almost explicitly linked his failure to win the Nobel Priests Prize with a more assertive stance on Greenland. Did that actually happen?
Well, yeah, I mean, we do message a lot with the president and sometimes I message together with the prime minister of Norway, Jonas Garstøre. So, yes, the response was as has been reported. And this is what frank diplomacy is all about. This is quite normal in our engagements behind the scenes. And it's good that we have these conversations.
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Chapter 2: What recent geopolitical tensions are surrounding Greenland?
I think...
There's a short-term scenario here and there's a long-term. Short-term is to basically de-escalate the language. And I hope we'll see some of that here in Davos here today, tomorrow, and the day after tomorrow. And then the second one is a long-term strategic thinking on, okay, is this an issue of sovereignty or is it an issue of security? I hope that it is an issue of security.
And then we start looking at how we can beef up security in the Arctic region Now, the latest conversations that I've had about this subject in the past two to three hours, this is how fast things are changing in the new foreign policy world, gives me a little bit of hope that we'll find a way.
It feels like a live negotiation. The president, a lot of the time, does come out with something very aggressive to get to an endpoint, which really is just a better deal. I liken this to NATO. At one point, there was reports he wanted to pull out of NATO, but really, at the end of the day, he wanted Europe to spend more. Is that how you view this, through that lens?
Well, first of all, the President of the United States has a capacity to deal with a multiplicity of issues at the same time. I mean, you only look at what's happened this year. Venezuela, Iran, Greenland, Gaza, the Peace Board, and many other things at the same time. And of course, add on to that domestic issues.
On the NATO issue, if someone would have told me at the 75th anniversary of NATO in Washington, D.C., in 2024, I think it was, that we are looking at increasing our defense expenditure to 5% next year, I would say, please go and see a doctor or consult the Foreign Affairs Magazine, because this is not going to happen.
Now, if at the end of the day after this, what could be called rhetorical escalation, we come up with a stronger Arctic security, then that is good. And obviously, we are seeing foreign policy done in a slightly different way from what we're used to. But, you know, I'm a Finn. I thought you'd ask the first question that, you know, what do you do?
I said, in these kinds of situations, you take a deep breath, you go in the sauna and you take an ice bath. And that's what we're missing here.
I've been to your embassy sauna where they have had diplomatic dealings done. It's quite a scene. You can have the ice bath right there.
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Chapter 3: How does President Stubb view Trump's interest in Greenland?
Look, there is this question, Mr. President, about why European nations were sending more troops to Greenland over the past couple of days and the past week. At first it was to beef up and show that they were serious about the security.
That's not what it was about at all. Okay, so...
The way that it was taken by President Trump was to defend for the United States.
Yeah, I think there was probably a misunderstanding, or not probably, there was. So basically, let me explain. There is something called Arctic Endurance, which is basically a NATO training exercise. That exercise has eight different components, all of which... the United States is present.
We were asked by our allies to go and do a reconnaissance mission to check out the territory, the landscape, and how it's going to work out. This is completely normal procedure. And obviously, I can't talk about the specifics of that exercise, but trust me, it is not trying to protect anything westbound. It's more eastbound.
At what point do you feel like you're just fielding calls because you're thought of as the Trump whisperer? I mean, what are you telling your colleagues in other European nations about how to deal with Mr. President?
Well, I think, you know, diplomacy, a lot of times when people analyze diplomacy, they look at it on a state-to-state relations. You know, what's the values, interests, power, culture, history, geography? But they forget diplomacy. that a lot of it is actually about person-to-person engagement.
And the fact that I'm able to communicate directly with the president puts me as president of Finland into good position. But I have no illusions about being a Trump whisperer. You know, it's... He's the president of the United States. He decides completely for himself. I throw out a couple of ideas. Sometimes he likes them, sometimes he doesn't.
And then I throw ideas to our other European allies and friends. That's what diplomacy is about. When did you last speak? We spoke, it was a collective phone call, I think in Paris on the... 5th of December or Berlin. I forget when it was. With the president? Yeah, yeah. But that was sort of a collective.
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Chapter 4: What diplomatic strategies are used in U.S.-Finland relations?
The reason I ask you is because I'm trying to gauge whether there was a misunderstanding. It certainly seems like you perceive there was a misunderstanding.
Well, my perception is that it was a misunderstanding. So now we need to sit down, discuss, get an off-ramp. And at the end of the day, we need more Arctic security with European and American presence.
This has clearly played out very publicly. And you've been transparent about how frank things are, often behind the scenes. But given how publicly this has played out, what kind of a message do you think this is sending to the Russians at the moment, the way this is playing out?
Well, any time there is a diplomatic issue, to put it diplomatically, between us, the transatlantic partners, I'm sure that the Kremlin is enjoying it. I mean, and they will use it as they best can, as we saw, you know, I mean... Foreign Minister of Russia Lavrov puts out a tweet and saying that for the U.S., Greenland is what Crimea is for Russia. And obviously, you know, that's an insult.
And we all understand that. So we always have to be careful with the Russians because they will use any moment and any possibility for good old information warfare propaganda.
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Chapter 5: What is the significance of the Arctic security discussions?
The unintended consequences just creates more of a positive attitude towards Russia and China and divides the transatlantic relationship. How big of a concern is that? Especially as we just saw Mark Carney go over to Beijing and say they have this new strategic partnership.
Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, I'm very pro-European. I'm very pro-American. And I'm a transatlanticist. So it is in my interest and also based on my values that we have a closer relationship with the United States. That's why I'm also very pragmatic. I understand that the United States is the number one superpower. And what we need to avoid, of course, is a certain disengagement.
At the same time, I have to say that Europe needs to...
use this moment as well you know it needs to beef up its defense it needs to get stronger economically and I think you know my big thesis is that it's going to be the global south that decides the new world order so that means that we need to engage more with the likes of India I really like the free trade agreement that the EU forged with Mercosur and I think people will start looking a little bit elsewhere but I really still want to contain and bring back the US as best we can
On top of Russia, on that conversation, I've been told that discussions are going very well between the United States and Ukrainians, the United States and the Russians. Kirill Dmitriev reportedly is here having a conversation with Steve Witkoff today. How much longer do you think it will take to get that deal done? Do you think Putin even wants a deal?
Okay, so two observations on this.
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Chapter 6: How does President Stubb perceive the role of NATO in Arctic security?
The first one is that I'm afraid that the Greenland issue will take all the oxygen here in Davos from the Ukraine dossier, which I still think is fundamentally important and acute. But the second point is good news. Ever since Jared Kushner came into the game, actually in Geneva right after the G20 summit, and we had another meeting in Berlin and then in Paris, we have a lot of more practicality.
So we basically have, depends on how you count, six documents or two plus five documents. The good news is that Ukraine, the United States, and the Coalition of the Willing of Europe, we're on the same page. The big question is, are the Russians? I'm quite skeptical about that. You know, I think we might get a deal on security arrangements.
We might get a deal on territory, certainly on the prosperity package. I'm quite hopeful that we'll get something here this week.
But then the Russians will say, well, if Russia continues to drag the United States along, do you have a sense of what Trump's red line is with Putin?
I'm not going to start interpreting the red lines of the president of the United States, but I have to say that I really like what he did on Lukoil and Rosneft on the sanctions. And to be honest, I mean, Putin lied to President Trump about the drones hitting his dacha. They fired ballistic missiles. So this is something that certainly will shorten the fuse of the president of the United States.
And it, of course, depends on how much carrot do you put before you hit with the big stick.
Just a final question. We often ask our guests for forecasts at the World Economic Forum. I'm not going to ask for a long-term one. Where do you think we'll be at the end of this week?
I think we will have defused the Greenland issue. I think we will have made progress on Ukraine. And I am 100% sure that the world will not be finished by then.
Mr. President, thanks for your time.
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