Bloomberg Talks
Oliver Chen, senior equity research analyst at TD Cowen, Talks Retail Outlook
28 Nov 2025
Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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And now we finish strong in this hour with Oliver Chen, definitive at TD Cowan. I can't say enough about his acuity over the years. Oliver, I remember the day a pair of 501 Levi's became more than $999 a pair. You feature in your research note Levi's. What is their strategy given Amazon and given 2025 retail?
Well, Tom, it's a pleasure to be here. Happy Black Friday as well. Levi's is an iconic brand with dominant market share at the premium end of the market. Also, as we think about what's happening now in product execution, it's about classics with a twist. It's about getting great value as well. And denim fits really nicely into these themes.
What Levi's is doing specifically is more direct to consumer, basically opening their own stores globally and consumers are looking for value. It plays quite nicely with quality. As you know, 501s last forever and you shouldn't wash them either.
We turn to surveillance. Oh, tell me. Yeah, I get that lecture at home. We turn to surveillance fashion correspondent Lisa Mateo. Lisa, Brandy Melville is on the Mateo target, isn't it?
Oh, okay. So yesterday I received my daughter's seven-page PowerPoint presentation for her Christmas list. My question to you, Oliver, is are people going to be spending as much as they did last holiday season? That's what I want to know because I put a budget out there.
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Chapter 2: What insights does Oliver Chen provide on the retail outlook for Black Friday?
Yeah, Lisa, first of all, I want that deck, please. Second, we are seeing spending. We're seeing a consumer that does have plenty of anxiety that's looking for great deals. That being said, the consumer still has money, wants joy. We're forecasting up two to three percent. Keep in mind, inflation and pricing will be about two to three percent.
So your units are flat and there's a bit of a struggle. On the one hand, consumers want joy and wellness and and gifting. On the other hand, they're feeling anxious. So we're watching both, and there's a bunch of cross currents, but don't bet against the US consumer. It's been solid.
Worldwide, Oliver Chen with us, TD Cohen, and we continue. Oliver, are we going to get out charge cards or like the affirm buy now, pay later kind of thing? How are we going to acquire our Christmas, our holiday, 2025?
We're going to be using both. What's still happening is mobile is in the new mall. So we're seeing increased rates of mobile use, but a bit of everything from buy online pickup and store to curbside pickup to delivery is being used so much. And then I like the good old fashioned way. It's just thrilling to be in the stores this morning and across the country and earlier this week.
So it's all happening. And certainly these new ways of payment and the future of payments is very different for younger customers too.
Oliver Chen on luxury right now. Kevin Gordon is in the French Alps at that hotel Audrey Hepburn was in in Charade with Cary Grant. He emails in Oliver with a great question.
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Chapter 3: How is Levi's adapting its strategy in the current retail landscape?
This is Kevin Gordon of Charles Schwab. Bottega Venata blew it up and is doing better with the British type Louise Trotter. The fashion heads of different luxury brands, they still really matter, don't they?
Yeah, what's happening is lots of change. The creative matters are really creating desire, having new design. And we're seeing a lot of newness at Gucci and others. And Bottega has been doing great. The themes for luxury continue to be quiet luxury in terms of what's happening with less focus on logos and a real emphasis on quality and materials. So Bottega Veneta fits nicely in that trend.
As you know, Brunello Cucinelli, Laura Piana, And I'm a personal lover of Gucci, so I want to see them win. We're watching some creative change there at Tom Ford, too.
Right. We've seen that. Lisa, you mentioned today Burberry a little bit off the mark. They've been hugely promotional. Lisa Mateo.
Yeah, they have.
With Oliver Chen.
Now, also on the luxury segment, I'm going through the Wall Street Journal this morning and it has this article that says jewelry is outperforming the rest of the luxury world. Are you seeing that?
Yes, we are. We love Cartier. So there's definitely a barbell and bifurcation where more pressure at the low and middle and then some real strength at the high end. And Cartier Richemont Group is outperforming Van Cleef as well as Cartier. customers are gravitating towards gold, jewelry, real stores of value. And the prices here are compelling because handbag prices have gotten extreme.
So the Love Collection at Cartier, Love Unlimited at Cartier, the Maison, really enduring value and timelessness. And overall, the jewelry growth rates have been in the high single digit. And we've been struggling to grow in handbags.
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Chapter 4: What consumer spending trends are emerging this holiday season?
And they're serving the middle and low well too with that everyday low price. I grew up in Louisiana going to the Walmart Supercenter and it's a real community driven retailer as well.
Oliver, thank you so much for having us finish strong in retail this Black Friday. Mr. Chen is with T.D. Cowan. I can't say enough. We protect the copyright of all of our guests. For Oliver Chen, please go to T.D. Cowan to get his brilliant note. You heard it there, Walmart. Single best buy.
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