President & Founder at Yardeni Research Ed Yardeni Talks Potential Market Breakdown
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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How's it been? I got to be a bit of a realist given what is going on. Yeah, I'm still sticking with 60% for what I call the roaring 2020s. However, I had given 20% to a melt-up because things kind of had that potential still. It's not a high probability. And 20% to a melt-down, a recession. Right. Kind of a bucket for everything that could go wrong. Well, now I'm just 5% for a melt-up. That's very unlikely. Am I? And 35% for things going wrong, which they are. Amazon does a $37 to $42 billion bond offering. Damien tells me it's going to be six phone calls. Heath Terry, brilliant, over at Citigroup, publishes and reaffirms AI viability in revenue, in profit, in getting things done with all this cap. I agree with that.
X, synthesize in, as you mentioned, spreads haven't moved. The bond market's screaming stability. These other news items, fold them into your roaring 20s theme. Well, I mean, we've done pretty well with our thesis so far. We've got a few more years here left in the decade. I think this will pass. You're short-selling yourself. Folks, it's the Yardeni-Ankhapura law of October a few years ago.
What market trends does Ed Yardeni observe currently?
Add in Ralph Ankhapura, they nailed it. Continue. Thank you very much. So look, I think in the short term, we clearly have an issue with the straight of our moves. It's hard to get optimistic here unless we see some tankers actually going through there without... any incident.
What probabilities does Yardeni assign to market outcomes?
I know the president sounds like he wants to declare victory here pretty shortly, but I think Iran lost the war. They just don't really know it. They're not acting like it. The problem with this country is that it's a terrorist state with a terrorist organization that basically spreads terrorism around the world. And they're professional terrorists. And so it's very hard to kind of beat them just by blasting them with bombs. Ed, back in December, you correctly, I'm going to give Ed a softball here. He correctly called for an underweight position in the MAG-7. And the basket's now down 6.3% year to date. I'm curious, do you see further weakness in U.S. tech stocks right here, right now? Or is this a buying opportunity?
Well, I think it's becoming very bifurcated. The companies that still have moats, the companies that are basically competing in still fairly stable marketplaces, I think are fine. The problem for the Magnificent Seven is they used to be kind of like the Game of Thrones. It was like seven independent kingdoms that had moats and didn't really bother each other. But ever since AI, they're competing like mad, and it's... You know, it's an AI arms race. We're going to continue with Ed Yardeni. Dr. Yardeni of Yardeni Research. Can't say enough about his research. It's an exceptionally valued Yardeni report that you get from him literally on a daily basis. Damian Sassar and Tom Keene with Ed Yardeni. We'll move forward here in a bit to...
further discussion of what we saw in the Secretary of Defense's press conference here a bit ago, but it is about the markets. Here's the summary for those of you across this nation waking up. The VIX was 35. That is painful. We've come in dramatically to a 24.57 with red and green on the screen, but a decidedly better tape today than what we witnessed in the last 48 hours with the market opening Alexis Christophorus. All right. Thanks very much, Tom.
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–2:18
2
What market trends does Ed Yardeni observe currently?
2:18–2:38
3
What probabilities does Yardeni assign to market outcomes?
2:38–6:19
4
How does AI influence current market dynamics?
6:19–13:59
5
What factors contribute to the potential for a market meltdown?
13:59–17:33
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