Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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But first, a briefing on your Washington, Henrietta Trace, where Ana joins us from Veda Partners this morning. Henrietta, we could do a two-hour conversation. I got about eight minutes here as well. How's the Secretary of Defense doing inside the Beltway?
There are reasons for Hegseth to be very concerned. One of the biggest things I'm going to be watching when the Senate gets back into session on Monday night is whether Republican leadership feels compelled to call Hegseth or other Defense Department officials to the Senate for hearings.
There are three Republican senators who got obviously very perturbed by the president's commentary, his sort of end of civilization talk. over the last couple of days. That would be Senator John Curtis, a Republican from Utah, Lisa Murkowski, and the tried and true efforts of Rand Paul.
But what I think really stands out and we should be watching for is whether Hegseth gets called up to brief the committees in public. I think that's a real risk.
I look at the news though, Henrietta, and maybe an open question here. Paul's got like, he's got a list over here. He's like, Scarlett Foo. Scarlett taught you this. Sure, absolutely. He's got eight questions lined up. Henrietta, an open question. What is your question to the Trump administration and to the president this morning?
I mean, my question is, you had seven more days to wage this war. Why did you box yourself in? The strait is closed. The president's talking about a joint venture, which seems preposterous and would raise taxes on gas globally if ultimately it comes true. He had all the way until at least midway through next week to continue perpetuating the war. I want to know why there was an early drawdown.
He talked himself into this, you know, massive escalation after 48 hours.
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Chapter 2: What is the political context surrounding the Iran War ceasefire?
And it was totally unnecessary politically has all the way until, you know, at a minimum Wednesday of next week before a war powers resolution would come up before any kind of political leash would be put on him. And I think they had until five dollar gasoline. So he stopped this pretty quickly. He didn't need to. I think that's really interesting.
So what brings us to, that brings us obviously to this ceasefire, Henrietta, what do you make of it? What's the feeling in Washington, DC about this ceasefire and maybe where we go from here?
It's really strongly suggestive of the very negative numbers that Republicans are seeing in polls nationwide. I feel like I've said this ever since the November elections, but we saw swings of 15 to 30 points across Georgia and Wisconsin last night. There's a 56% swing in the Latino vote outside of Milwaukee. This is like 18-year high numbers. So the Republicans are plainly seeing this.
They're seeing gas hit $4.16. If my analysis is off, it's really that they didn't have until $5.
Chapter 3: How are Trump administration officials responding to the war in Iran?
It's still $4.
So what are next? When Congress does come back, will they weigh in at all here? Because they really have been silent for the last six weeks.
I think that they will. And I think that the president's wind down of the war before he needed to suggest that the backlash amongst Republicans and amongst American voters is too extreme, especially from independent voters, for it to perpetuate. So, you know, accepting the ceasefire, I think it's the end of the window. The number one question for investors right now is, will this hold?
This was the last best free reign that he had to wage the war, and he called it off. So I think that's really telling us.
Okay, this is timestamp 738 this morning. It's about 50 minutes ago. This is Julian Lee, outstanding out of London with Perjula Prem as well. They have literally a Hormuz tracker available on the Bloomberg terminal. The headline is simple, no pickup in traffic yet on U.S.-Iran ceasefire. So, Henrietta, I think it's a 14-day ceasefire. Where are we day seven, day eight, day nine?
What is the political sweat that we're going to face into next week?
I mean, I think they've got to be hoping that the 800 tanker backlog is starting to clear up a little bit. You know, it's a 21 mile street, but you can't push 800 tankers through a 21 mile street all that quickly. So I think they're going to really be following gas prices most closely.
I would follow whether the Senate budget and House budget committees move forward with a reconciliation structure or whether they're like, look, we don't need to move in this dramatic fashion. How serious those are, whether we get a war powers resolution passed in the House and Senate. I think the president is going to be able to stave off passage in the Senate, but it's dicey.
And one more question, because Paul's looking at me like, Tom, put a cork in your mouth. Henrietta, as simple as I can, did Johnson and Thune have control of the troops?
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