Dmitry Levit & Shiyan Koh: eFishery Fallout, Indonesia’s Growth Reset & Agritech’s Future - E627

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Dmitry Levit 0:00
When was the last boom in fundraising? And that would have been twenty twenty two. Yeah. Of the step ups that everybody had in their portfolios. These vintages of twenty one, twenty two are not gone till thirty twenty five, twenty six. This is when the investment periods will finish. People want to spend money, okay. Everybody can get themselves extra year of investment period. And then it has to be deployed. So I'd actually imagine that the wall of bright powder that needs to be deployed in Southeast Asia is quite significant. And that's what's causing the leakage into restaurants and coffee shops and whatnot, because balls are running out of imagination as to where to put the money. So I wouldn't worry about the current drought until maybe five years from now, at which point there will be a boom in the market and foreign investors will just come and take the niche.
Jeremy Au 0:46
Welcome to Brave. Learn from Southeast Asia's best tech leaders. Build the future, learn from our past, and stay human in between. No BS on Success. I'm Jeremy O, Venture Capitalist, Sarah founder, Harvard MBA, science fiction nerd, and dad of two daughters. Every week, we debate startup news, interview change makers, answer listener questions, and share personal insights. Join our movement of over 40,000 members and get transcripts, resources and community at www.bravessea.com. Stay well and stay brave. Hey Dimitri, Hey Shast episode was about you know February 2024. We were discussing and our our title was dislocation Of a reaction and confusion. Now the sequel a year and a half later. We are here because we are so excited to help launch your new central ventures report on Southeast Asia ecosystem.
Jeremy Au 1:51
And literally I was like trying to understand the ecosystem and I was like, I need Dimitri's report and it's coming out. So thank you for
Dmitry Levit 1:58
sharing. Thank you for accelerating the process. Otherwise, I would have published it in November.
Jeremy Au 2:02
Well, just in time September for Super Returns, right? Super Returns Asia. So I'm sure lots of people will be using it to, you know, private conversations. So why don't you just tell us what the headlines and then let's go from there?
Dmitry Levit 2:13
I do refer our audiences to the twenty twenty uh four and oh February, was it? Yay. I think that was actually a very um seminal conversation, I believe. Um, which shall be much quoted in today's discussion, but highlights. We have lost mega deals, which is as predicted. We have not lost them entirely. There's a bunch of Japanese investors that still are willing to bet significant amounts of money on mostly digital banks in Southeast Asia. So we still have about About three, four hundred million worth of those every half a year. We have, I think, stabilized the core stack or what we call the core stack, which is our local community of PCs. Up until uh I'd say probably we stabilized it until second half of twenty twenty four.
Dmitry Levit 2:55
And then something happened. And I'll comment on that. A third bubble has popped. Previously we talked about post COVID bubble and we talked about uh Zero interest rate bubble. What we didn't talk back in February 2024 was Indonesia bubble. The battle class. But up until then, I think the core stack held at its usual bill every half a year, give or take. Uh we have started seeing the beginnings of recovery in the middle of 2024 tech, and especially fintech and the Philippines start dragging the ecosystem out of dolphins. It's not visible in top 20 numbers, but if you remove all the other verticals and see fintech. going back up and we lost All the secondaries and all the IPOs. I think last secondaries were the fisheries secondaries, famously.
Dmitry Levit 3:38
What we do have now is a bit of data that I still haven't figured out how to track. And that would be the liquidity that happens post the point of listing, which is to say, take private. You have noticed a couple of billion dollar companies going from public to private, and a whole bunch of block trading in the public companies. People are realigning their positions, having seen what public markets do to. What else have we got?

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